Analysis Archive
Every published analysis — 60 Daily US and 59 Global Rates editions.
Daily US
- Aug 25, 2026Daily Macro USThe consistency check we used yesterday to defend our own fair value does not reproduce: the same model gives 40 on the 10Y 5.00% leg, not 16, against a 17.5c market. We freeze pos-017 FV at 72 instead of taking the 73 the arithmetic offers, and refuse a nominal 22pp gap as model failure rather than edge. Fed-hike-2026 56.5c, GDPNow Q3 4.0%, no trades
- Aug 24, 2026Daily Macro USFriday's flagged oddity resolved and we were not on it: the US-Canada tariff collapse takes Fed-hike-2026 49.5c -> 55.5c. We refused to add at 49.5c under our own 10pp bar and we publish what that cost. pos-017 FV 70 -> 72, arithmetic not narrative
- Aug 21, 2026Daily Macro USThe buyback bid lasted one session: the 10Y is back to 4.691% and we are reversing our own fair-value cut, 60 → 70, one day after making it. pos-017 +$75.76 — and we are not raising the gate we lowered
- Aug 20, 2026Daily Macro USTreasury doubles its long-end buybacks and our best bet loses its engine: pos-017 fair value cut 74 → 60, now marked above our own FV — while pos-011 walks to the 30 we published. Four missed sessions disclosed
- Aug 13, 2026Daily Macro USThe trade we refused won: July CPI printed 3.4% and cost us $41.67 — we are keeping the bar anyway. BoJ hits 72c after we passed at 42.5. Oil near $90 puts pos-017 11bp from home at +$78
- Aug 10, 2026Daily Macro USWe missed Friday's -23K payroll print, and we were wrong about our own best position: pos-017 fair value corrected 55 -> 65 as Iran's Hormuz conditions re-arm oil; refusing that 44.5c Fed-September ticket saved 10 points
- Aug 6, 2026Daily Macro USADP misses at +44K and the touch bet slips again — fair value cut a second day (62→55); we refused two trades, including a 12pp Fed-September gap we could not verify at source
- Aug 5, 2026Daily Macro USDovish drift tests the book before NFP: soft JOLTS + Iran calm pull the 10Y to 4.6%, our touch bet gives back 11c — held into tomorrow's decisive jobs print; no-cut bet unmoved
- Aug 4, 2026Daily Macro USIran de-escalation cools the book: oil -5%, 10Y back to 4.68% — our touch bet holds on dual-engine design; ECB market flips 16→87.5c, the non-trade we're glad we skipped
- Aug 3, 2026Daily Macro USCrescendo delivered: GDP bet wins +$114 (GDPNow nailed it), hawkish 9-3 Fed lifts the book to a record — but we MISSED the BoJ trade our own thesis called, for lack of event-day coverage
- Jul 27, 2026Daily Macro USFirst Fed-complex profit banked: pos-010 trimmed at 66.5c (+$21) as hike odds hit 38% and oil rolls over — 10Y at 4.71% leaves our touch bet 9bp from home, into FOMC week
- Jul 22, 2026Daily Macro USBrent $92 drives the 10Y to within 21bp of our touch bet — book hits a fresh high; we decline to re-chase the BoJ gate at our own re-open line, three sessions from the crescendo
- Jul 21, 2026Daily Macro USHormuz gets a 20% toll and the BoJ gate closes empty: our two-week thesis repriced 8→19c before the gate opened — right call, no trade, rule intact
- Jul 20, 2026Daily Macro USThe scan that mostly said no: Friday's automated GDP entry opens +35% while the CPI wing trade dies by its own condition and the yen hedge runs away — a study in process
- Jul 17, 2026Daily Macro USThe war premium is back: Brent $84.5 re-arms the hawkish book — zero-cuts firms to 84c on real volume, claims 208K starve the cut case; 10Y-touch lags its own thesis again
- Jul 15, 2026Daily Macro USChina prints 4.3% candor — pos-016 loses $25 and the regime lesson gets published; BoJ gate corrected to Jul 30-31 (our error); Fed-July completes its 10→50→7c whipsaw
- Jul 14, 2026Daily Macro USThe referee said 3.5% — everyone wrong, us most of all: flagship loses $75, full post-mortem. July-hike market whipsaws 50c→9c in a morning; amended pos-010 rule holds through the round trip; oil +9% keeps the 10Y ticket alive
- Jul 13, 2026Daily Macro USEve of the gauntlet: flagship at 22.5c into tomorrow's CPI + Warsh double-header — China bracket's mystery seller surfaces (Iran Q2 impact), BoJ gate case strengthens overnight
- Jul 12, 2026Daily Macro USSunday brief: weekend surge takes hike-2026 to one tick below our trim line — every Tuesday branch pre-committed before CPI + Warsh testimony hit the same morning
- Jul 10, 2026Daily Macro USMarket walks toward our 3.9% bracket (15→20c) as Cleveland prints 3.92 a fifth straight day — 10Y touches 4.60, hike-2026 gap re-widens, deploy gate armed for CPI Tuesday
- Jul 9, 2026Daily Macro USThe CPI crowd round-trips in 24 hours — contagion call vindicated as 3.9 firms to 17c; split-committee minutes fade July hike (our exit caught the top); new 10Y touch position at 16.5c
- Jul 8, 2026Daily Macro USFastest win yet: Fed-July trade exits +68% in 22 hours as the market converges to FedWatch — pos-010 goes green at 57.5c; CPI market reorganizes around our 3.9% bracket, Cleveland unmoved at 3.92
- Jul 7, 2026Daily Macro USWidest gap we've published: Cleveland nowcasts June CPI at 3.92% — the 3.9% bracket trades at 15c. Entered $75, plus Fed-July and China GDP; core-CPI correction logged
- Jul 6, 2026Daily Macro USFirst loss on the book: IRGC corridor warnings crash Hormuz to 14.5c, exit rule fires at -$55 — zero-cuts add executed at 77.7c; CPI Jul 14 is the week's gate
- Jul 3, 2026Daily Macro USCorrection: NFP June was +57K, not ~110K — July hike odds collapse to 22%, zero-cuts cracks 13pp to 78c; Dow record 52.9K, CPI Jul 14 decisive
- Jul 2, 2026Jul 2, 2026NFP June ~110K misses 150K deploy threshold — Brent erases war premium, pos-012 under pressure; CPI July 14 is the next trigger
- Jul 1, 2026Jul 1, 2026Tankan +22 smashes forecasts, 10Y back to 4.47% — NFP tomorrow is the deploy trigger for pos-010's $275 free capital
- Jun 30, 2026Jun 30, 2026Dow first above 52K as SCOTUS locks in Fed independence — Doha talks today, pos-010 gap widens to 15pp, NFP Thursday
- Jun 29, 2026Jun 29, 2026Nasdaq -4.6% on AI bubble fears, Hormuz MOU fractures to 35% — NFP Thursday is the week's fulcrum
- Jun 25, 2026Jun 25, 2026PCE May hits 4.0% YoY as Hormuz flows 4.8M b/d — adding to pos-012, Micron reverses AH gains, S&P -1%
- Jun 24, 2026Jun 24, 2026Micron earnings and Fed stress tests after close — WTI $72, PCE May tomorrow, Hormuz 47%
- Jun 23, 2026Jun 23, 2026Taking +$277 early profit on inflation NO (pos-001) as oil deflation closes the 4.5% path — Hormuz 49%, PCE May Friday
- Jun 22, 2026Daily Macro USChips lead Monday bounce to 7,500 — closing pos-009 at exit target, Hormuz 41%, PCE May this week
- Jun 19, 2026Daily Macro USMOU signed, blockade lifted, tankers moving — pos-012 at 46% despite physical Hormuz progress
- Jun 18, 2026Daily Macro USPolymarket catches up — Fed hike odds 57% (+20pp overnight), WTI $75, Iran signing tomorrow
- Jun 17, 2026Daily Macro USWarsh holds, 9 of 18 hike dots — S&P -1.21% to 7,420, market sells off on hawkish dot plot
- Jun 16, 2026Daily Macro USBoJ hiked to 1.0% (highest since 1995) — FOMC Day 1, Warsh presser tomorrow is everything
- Jun 15, 2026Daily Macro USIran deal confirmed — WTI $82, Fed hike odds collapse to 38%, Warsh presser tomorrow is everything
- Jun 12, 2026Daily Macro USIran deal imminent — WTI crashes to $86, Fed hike odds slide to 50.5%, FOMC 4 days
- Jun 11, 2026Daily Macro USECB hiked +25bp to 2.25% — S&P falls to 7,267, FOMC June 16-17 is the week's pivot
- Jun 10, 2026Daily Macro USCPI 4.2% resolves three positions +$208.61 — Fed hike odds hit 72%, ECB tomorrow
- Jun 9, 2026Daily Macro USCPI in 12 hours — three positions resolve tomorrow at 8:30am ET
- Jun 8, 2026Daily Macro USCPI prints tomorrow — pos-005 closed +$48.53, BoJ 97%
- Jun 5, 2026Daily Macro USNFP +172K — unemployment holds 4.3%, pos-005 resolves YES
- Jun 4, 2026Daily Macro USOil pulls back $88.90 — ECB tomorrow
- Jun 3, 2026Daily Macro USIran escalation — WTI surges $93-97
- Jun 2, 2026Daily Macro USECB position exited — HICP invalidation
- Jun 1, 2026Daily Macro USOil stabilising — 35pp gap widens
- May 31, 2026Daily Macro USMonth-end rebalance — 9 positions
- May 30, 2026Daily Macro USCleveland nowcast 3.3-3.5% confirmed
- May 29, 2026Daily Macro USFed hold 97% — rate cuts off table
- May 28, 2026Daily Macro USCPI MoM gap widens to 28pp
- May 27, 2026Daily Macro USMemorial Day — markets thin
- May 26, 2026Daily Macro USPCE 3.3% — inflation thesis intact
- May 25, 2026Daily Macro USSPF forecast: unemployment capped 4.5%
- May 24, 2026Daily Macro USGDPNow 4.3% — recession risk low
- May 23, 2026Daily Macro USUS Recession 2026 entered at 28%
- May 22, 2026Daily Macro USCPI YoY 4.3% + 4.4% positions entered
- May 21, 2026Daily Macro USUnemployment + CPI MoM positions entered
- May 20, 2026Daily Macro USPortfolio opened — 4 positions entered
Global Rates
- Aug 25, 2026Global RatesFour sovereign curves, four moves under 2bp — and the only thing that actually changed is our arithmetic. The 5.00% consistency check that validated pos-017 yesterday returns 40 today, not 16. FV frozen at 72, the 22pp gap refused. ECB Sep 95.5c, BoJ Sep 87.5c unchanged, Fed Sep 33.5c with our carried FV withdrawn
- Aug 24, 2026Global RatesThe three-way divergence closes from the American end: Fed Sep 27.5c -> 32.5c on a North American trade war, while ECB Sep hits 94.5c and BoJ Sep 87.5c. Bund near a 2011 high, JGB at a 1996 high, gilt above 5% — and our 5.00% consistency check says the 4.8% fair value is honest
- Aug 21, 2026Global RatesSame oil shock, three answers: ECB September priced at 92c, BoJ at 84.5c, the Fed at 27.5c — Bund at a 2011 high, JGB at a 1996 high, and a US intervention that held the curve for one day
- Aug 20, 2026Global RatesTwo long ends hit multi-decade highs, one got rescued: the US Treasury doubled its buybacks and the 10Y fell while Brent rose — our oil-drives-term-premium mechanism failed a clean test, FV 74 → 60
- Aug 13, 2026Global RatesTokyo repriced without us: the BoJ hike we called at 40c trades at 72c, retired as a completed miss — while attacks on Red Sea shipping put Brent near $90 and the long end back to 4.69% on a benign CPI
- Aug 10, 2026Global RatesThe unwind splits: dovish front ends on -23K US payrolls, re-arming term premium on Iran's five Hormuz preconditions — we correct our own pos-017 fair value back up, 55 -> 65
- Aug 6, 2026Global RatesHormuz route deal takes WTI -11% and ADP misses at +44K — the synchronized unwind hits our premium ticket again while the structural one holds; a 12pp Fed gap refused for lack of verification
- Aug 5, 2026Global RatesSynchronized unwind: soft JOLTS + Iran calm ease global long ends, Fed Sep hike sub-50% — the correlated book cools as one; no-cut anchor holds, NFP the hinge
- Aug 4, 2026Global RatesDe-escalation unwinds the war premium: oil -5%, yields ease, yen firms — the dual-engine touch bet holds; ECB market flips 16→87.5c, proving the 10pp bar both ways
- Aug 3, 2026Global RatesThe hawkish trio: 9-3 Fed, hawkish BoJ hold, 10Y at 4.75% — GDP bet wins, but the BoJ trade our thesis called slipped away for lack of event-day coverage
- Jul 27, 2026Global RatesOil's round-trip meets a live FOMC: Brent +27% then gapping lower on paused strikes — we trim our hike bet into the strength; 10Y at 4.71% and a 72-hour FOMC/GDP/BoJ cluster
- Jul 22, 2026Global RatesBrent $92 is the whole story: term premium exporting worldwide, ceasefire markets confirm the war premium persists — we decline to re-chase the BoJ at our own re-open line
- Jul 21, 2026Global RatesPolicy becomes the supply shock: a 20% Hormuz toll reprices global inflation — and our BoJ thesis comes true at 19c, one gate too late
- Jul 20, 2026Global RatesProcess week opens: the yen hedge that ran away (63→74.5c unverified), the CPI trade killed by its own condition, and a fortnight bending toward Jul 29-31
- Jul 17, 2026Global RatesThe decoupling lasted eleven days: Brent $84.5 redistributes inflation risk across every curve — Japan CPI Tuesday could jump our gate; gold bracket dies without us
- Jul 15, 2026Global RatesBeijing prints candor: 4.3% grades our bracket at zero — regime lesson filed; BoJ gate corrected to Jul 30-31 as Iran's oil bid decouples from US disinflation
- Jul 14, 2026Global RatesOne Washington number redraws every curve: dollar dumped, July hike vaporized — yet the long end rallied through it on a burning Strait. Tomorrow at dawn: China grades pos-016, BoJ statement executes the Sep gate
- Jul 13, 2026Global RatesAsia leans dollar into the gauntlet — BoJ growth-upgrade reports draft our gate language; China bracket sold to 63c on Iran-impact fears, regime test Wednesday
- Jul 12, 2026Global RatesSunday brief: hawkish weekend radiates from Washington into BoJ week — 30 hours until CPI + Warsh, then BoJ + China grade half the book
- Jul 10, 2026Global RatesEverything converges on a 30-hour window: US 10Y touches 4.60 into BoJ week, gold's $4,300 bracket collapses through our pass, China GDP drifts unexplained
- Jul 9, 2026Global RatesSplit-committee minutes drift global yields; BoJ market crawls 6→9c six days from the gate — crowd round-trips keep paying the model-anchored book
- Jul 8, 2026Global RatesHawkish FOMC minutes radiate globally: carry gap widens on the yen into BoJ Jul 15 — US CPI bracket migration puts the oil-crash disinflation narrative on trial
- Jul 7, 2026Global RatesYen 162.83 — Bessent urges BoJ hikes as $73B of intervention fails; BoJ market halves on no volume, China GDP entered at 72.5c
- Jul 6, 2026Global RatesOil decouples from Hormuz: Brent at 4-month lows despite IRGC standoff as OPEC+ adds supply — yen 1% from four-decade low, BoJ Jul 15 the gate
- Jul 3, 2026Global RatesYen at 161 with intervention warnings — BoJ Sep hike re-based to 11% (+14pp gap); Brent third straight decline, Hormuz 20 transits vs 60-call bar
- Jul 2, 2026Jul 2, 2026Brent erases war premium, BoJ's Nagahama eyes year-end hike — KOSPI below 8,000 as soft NFP weakens dollar
- Jul 1, 2026Jul 1, 2026Tankan +22 smashes forecasts, EUR CPI falls to 2.8% — BoJ entry approaching, NFP tomorrow, Doha stalled
- Jun 30, 2026Jun 30, 2026Q2 closes with Dow above 52K — SCOTUS locks in Fed independence, Doha talks ongoing, NFP Thursday is the week's fulcrum
- Jun 29, 2026Jun 29, 2026Nasdaq -4.6% week on AI capex bubble — Hormuz at 35% as IRGC fires on vessel; NFP Thursday + Tankan Tuesday ahead
- Jun 25, 2026Jun 25, 2026PCE 4.0% YoY and Hormuz 4.8M b/d — 10Y hits 4.53%, USD/JPY pushes 162, pos-012 add confirmed
- Jun 24, 2026Jun 24, 2026Nikkei -3.2% on hike fears but Kospi +3% as Micron eve — Brent $76.50, BoJ Sep 50%, PCE May tomorrow
- Jun 23, 2026Jun 23, 2026Brent slides to $77 as Hormuz accelerates to 49% — yen at 161, BoJ Sep hike watch crosses 50%
- Jun 22, 2026Global RatesUSD/JPY hits 161 — BoJ Sep watch live as Hormuz slips to 41%, Bürgenstock talks resume
- Jun 19, 2026Global RatesMOU in effect — blockade lifted, tankers moving, oil -10% on week. 60-day clock starts now.
- Jun 18, 2026Global RatesIran MOU signs tomorrow — WTI $75, BoJ Sep watch open, Poly hike 57% as dot plot sinks in
- Jun 17, 2026Global RatesWarsh 9-dot hawkish shock — S&P -1.21% to 7,420, Poly Fed hike 37% lags CME 66%
- Jun 16, 2026Global RatesBoJ hiked to 1.0% (highest since 1995, 7-1) — Warsh's first FOMC presser tomorrow is the global macro pivot
- Jun 15, 2026Global RatesBoJ hikes today (98%) + FOMC starts today + Iran deal confirmed — the biggest macro week of 2026
- Jun 12, 2026Global RatesBoJ 4 days (98%) + FOMC 4 days + Iran deal imminent — convergence week begins
- Jun 11, 2026Global RatesECB hiked to 2.25% (confirmed) — BoJ June 16 in 5 days (97.7%), FOMC simultaneously
- Jun 10, 2026Global RatesECB tomorrow (91%), BoJ in 6 days (96%) — US hike odds 72% reinforces global rates-higher
- Jun 9, 2026Global RatesECB decision tomorrow (91%), BoJ in 7 days (96%) — CPI cross-asset watch at 8:30am
- Jun 8, 2026Global RatesECB in 3 days (92%), BoJ in 8 days (97%) — both near-certainties
- Jun 5, 2026Global RatesECB June 11 is the key date — BoJ 43pp gap intact post-NFP
- Jun 4, 2026Global RatesECB hikes tomorrow — BoJ 43pp gap
- Jun 3, 2026Global RatesIran escalation — BoJ gap narrows to 43pp
- Jun 2, 2026Global RatesECB position exited on HICP trigger
- Jun 1, 2026Global RatesBoJ June 16-17 — 46pp gap intact
- May 31, 2026Global RatesUSD/JPY 155 — yen weakness persists
- May 30, 2026Global RatesECB +25bp near-certain for June 5
- May 29, 2026Global RatesBoJ hold vote 6-3 — dissent unlikely
- May 28, 2026Global RatesECB June hike: top opportunity replaces BoJ
- May 27, 2026Global RatesJapan Q1 GDP -0.5% — hike case weak
- May 26, 2026Global RatesBoJ gap 44pp — highest since entry
- May 25, 2026Global RatesReuters poll: 65% expect June hike
- May 24, 2026Global RatesWTI $88 — import cost argument fades
- May 23, 2026Global RatesBoJ meeting June 16-17 confirmed
- May 22, 2026Global RatesBoJ +25bp June entered at 88%
- May 21, 2026Global RatesECB HICP 3.1% — June hike certain