Daily Macro US
Brent Crude
$84.53
War premium rebuilt — +$13 off early-July lows as US intensifies Iran strikes
10Y Treasury
4.557%
+1.2bp — term premium holding; pos-017 needs 24bp with 5.5 months left
Jobless Claims
208K
Below all forecasts, 2nd straight fall — labor NOT rolling; cut case starved
Zero Cuts (pos-013)
83.9%
+3.1pp on $85K volume; FV raised to 88 on the oil re-spike
Equities
Nasdaq -1.5%
Chips down 2nd day; S&P -0.5% — AI-boom digestion meets war tape
Retail Sales (June)
+0.2%
In line; ex-autos -0.2% soft; gasoline -5.3% on old cheap prices — about to reverse
The war premium is back, and it quietly re-arms half this book. Ten days ago we documented the 'decoupling' — Brent pinned near four-month lows while IRGC boats turned tankers around, because OPEC+ supply and soft demand outweighed the strait. That regime ended this week: with the US intensifying strikes on Iran, WTI closed Thursday at $79.43 and Brent at $84.53 — roughly thirteen dollars above the early-July lows. The 10Y rose to 4.557% (+1.2bp on the day), jobless claims fell to 208K (second straight decline, below every forecast), and June retail sales grew 0.2% headline. Equities didn't enjoy it: the Nasdaq fell 1.5% as chips sold off a second day, the S&P -0.5%. For the book, the oil re-spike matters more than any single print this week: July and August CPI now inherit an energy impulse that didn't exist when the crowd celebrated Tuesday's 3.5% — the 'cheap oil did it' interpretation that pos-013 rode through the soft print is being validated in the rudest possible way, from the other side. Zero Fed Cuts firmed to 83.9c on $85K of daily volume (FV raised 85 → 88; with $84 Brent and 208K claims, a 2026 cut needs a story nobody can tell). pos-010 holds at 51.5c with FV nudged to 56 — the Sep/Oct windows just got an energy tailwind, FOMC July 29 the next gate. And pos-017 (10Y touch 4.80) did its now-familiar trick of LAGGING its own thesis: the contract slipped to 21c on a few hundred dollars of volume while the 10Y rose and oil surged — the same apathy we bought at 16.5c. No trades today: nothing gated, nothing at trigger, and the correlation cap already has us as long the hawkish world as the method allows. A quiet, green-drifting Friday: 5 open, $432 staked, +$9.26 unrealized, +$476.28 realized, 9/12. Note: no Jul 16 edition was published; this post covers Thursday and overnight. Next gates: Japan CPI Jul 22 → FOMC Jul 29 → BoJ Jul 30-31.
Today's Market Moves
Zero Fed Cuts 2026 (pos-013)
80.8%→83.9%+3pp
The soft-CPI resilience we flagged Wednesday is being paid: 83.9c on real volume. The oil re-spike ($84.5 Brent) turns July/August CPI into energy-push prints — FV 85 → 88. Hold; this is the book's compounder.
10Y Touches 4.8% (pos-017)
26.5%→21%-6pp
Slipped 5.5pp on ~$400 of volume while BOTH engines strengthened (10Y up, oil up). Touch markets lag; that lag bought our entry and now it argues for patience, not panic. FV 38 unchanged.
Fed Rate Hike 2026 (pos-010)
52.5%→51.5%-1pp
Drifting at fair while the energy impulse rebuilds under it. FV 53 → 56. FOMC Jul 29 is the gate; floor 48c.
BoJ Sep Hike (gated)
7.5%→10.5%+3pp
Drifting up again pre-Japan-CPI (Jul 22). The gate (Jul 30-31 statement) holds; if the CPI print gaps this past 15c, we reassess per Wednesday's note.
Screening Table
| # | Market | Expiry | Market Price | Fair Value | Gap (pp) | Direction | Volume | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10Y Touches 4.8% Before 2027 | Dec 31 | 21% | 38% | +17pp | HOLD $25 YES — lagging both engines; correlation cap prevents add | $$245K | 6/10 |
| 2 | BoJ 25bp Hike at Sep Meeting | Sep 2026 | 10.5% | 25% | +14pp | GATED — Japan CPI Jul 22 interim, statement Jul 30-31 | $Minimal | 5/10 |
| 3 | Zero Fed Cuts 2026 | Dec 31 | 83.9% | 88% | +4pp | HOLD YES — FV raised on oil re-spike | $$85K/day | 7/10 |
| 4 | Fed Rate Hike 2026 | Dec 2026 | 51.5% | 56% | +4pp | HOLD YES — energy tailwind rebuilding; FOMC Jul 29 | $$12K/day | 6/10 |
| 5 | Fed Funds End 2026 = 4.0% | Dec 31 | 24.9% | 29% | +4pp | HOLD $25 YES | $$8K/day | 6/10 |
| 6 | Gold ≥ $4,300 in July | Jul 31 | 6% | 5% | -1pp | CLOSED WATCHLIST — bracket died without us on either side; pass fully validated | $$7K/day | 4/10 |
Market vs Fundamentals
Market Price (red) vs Estimated Fair Value (green) — %
Top 5 Opportunities
1
10Y Treasury Touches 4.8% Before 2027 — YES
↑ BUY YES+17pp
Market price
21%
Fair value
38%
Gap: +17pp
The contract fell while the 10Y rose and Brent added thirteen dollars — the third documented episode of this market ignoring its own inputs. At 4.557% the touch needs 24bp; the last 24bp took eight sessions in June. We'd add if the book weren't already at its hawkish-correlation limit; instead the position stays $25 and the apathy stays the edge.
▵ Bull case
- Both engines (Fed path via oil-CPI, war premium via Iran) strengthening simultaneously
- 24bp remaining vs 35bp already covered since entry
▿ Bear case
- Ceasefire headline risk cuts one engine instantly
- Thin daily volume = quotes can gap either way
2
Zero Fed Cuts 2026 — YES
↑ BUY YES+4pp
Market price
83.9%
Fair value
88%
Gap: +4pp
Wednesday's tell (firming through a soft CPI) became this week's trend: 77.6 → 83.9 since the add, with claims at 208K and oil rebuilding the exact inflation impulse the 3.5% print subtracted. The market is walking to our FV; the position's job now is to not be touched.
▵ Bull case
- Oil re-spike feeds Jul/Aug CPI directly
- 208K claims starve the cut narrative
- Real volume behind the move
▿ Bear case
- 4pp of edge left — the trade is mostly done
- A genuine growth scare remains the one path to December cuts
3
BoJ 25bp Hike at September Meeting — YES
↑ BUY YES+14pp
Market price
10.5%
Fair value
25%
Gap: +14pp
Drifting up again (7.5 → 10.5) with Japan CPI five days out. The corrected gate (Jul 30-31) stands, with Wednesday's caveat live: a hot Japan print that gaps this past 15c forces us to weigh entering on data rather than statement — the exact trade-off our calendar error created.
▵ Bull case
- Oil re-spike is imported inflation for Japan too
- Growth-upgrade expectations for the quarterly report intact
▿ Bear case
- Two gates of waiting has already cost 3pp of entry
- Thin book
4
Fed Rate Hike 2026 — YES
↑ BUY YES+4pp
Market price
51.5%
Fair value
56%
Gap: +4pp
Nine weeks in, the thesis has survived an NFP shock, a CPI shock, and its own whipsaw — and now gets an oil tailwind it never asked for. 51.5c against FV 56 is a hold; the FOMC on the 29th, with $84 Brent on the table, is the next chance for the market to remember why it priced 71.5c on Tuesday.
▵ Bull case
- Energy impulse rebuilds the Sep case
- Nine hike dots haven't gone anywhere
▿ Bear case
- Two soft CPIs in a row would end it
- Position is -$13 with patience as its only catalyst
5
US Unemployment ≥5.0% (held NO) — NO
↓ SELL YES-4pp
Market price
13.6%
Fair value
10%
Gap: -4pp
The forgotten position quietly compounds: +$15 with claims at 208K making the 5% unemployment scenario recede weekly. The two-sub-100K-payrolls trigger is nowhere in sight. Holding to resolution or an early-exit review if YES drops below 8c (capital efficiency, per the pos-002/003 playbook).
▵ Bull case
- Claims trend directly contradicts the YES case
▿ Bear case
- Long carry to Dec — early-exit review below 8c