Daily Macro US
S&P 500
~7,505
+0.6% bounce from 7,420 close (triple witching)
WTI Crude
$75.49
-1.70% — 5th consecutive drop, Iran signing tomorrow
Fed Hike Poly (pos-010)
57%
+20pp overnight catch-up from 37%
CME FedWatch
~66%
vs 57% Polymarket — 9pp gap remains
Hormuz Jul 31 (pos-012)
55%
Trump G7 uncertainty dampens vs prior 68%
Iran MOU Signing
Tomorrow
June 19 — Bürgenstock, Switzerland
The most important single-day re-pricing in this portfolio's history. Overnight, Polymarket Fed hike 2026 surged from ~37% to 57% — a 20pp gap close in one session after the market digested yesterday's hawkish dot plot (9 of 18 members, median 3.8%). CME FedWatch is at ~66%. pos-010, entered at 55¢ and which sat as low as 33¢ (Iran deal panic), has now recovered above entry to 57¢. The thesis — that 9/18 FOMC hawks + core CPI 4.2% = hike likely — has cleared its key prediction market hurdle. The equity market is finding its footing: S&P bouncing toward 7,500 on triple witching day (last trading session before Juneteenth). WTI fell another 1.7% to $75.49 — the fifth consecutive drop — as Iran signing approaches. Trump added risk at G7 (Evian, France): said the MOU 'isn't final' and threatened to go back to bombing if he doesn't like it. This dampened pos-012 (Hormuz July 31) from prior levels back toward 55¢. The signing is still scheduled for tomorrow (June 19, Bürgenstock, Switzerland) but Trump's language keeps the uncertainty premium elevated. Markets are closed June 19 (Juneteenth), so this is the final data point for the week. Next catalysts: Iran signing outcome, June NFP (July 2), June CPI (July 14).
Today's Market Moves
Fed Rate Hike 2026 (pos-010)
37%→57%+20pp
MAJOR RECOVERY: Polymarket surged 20pp overnight as markets fully digested 9/18 hike dots. Entry was 55¢ — we are now ABOVE entry at 57¢. CME at 66% (9pp still to close). October and September FOMC meetings are the consensus for the hike. Hold through June NFP (Jul 2) and CPI (Jul 14) for full recovery toward 65-70¢.
Fed Rate End 2026 = 4.0% (pos-011)
21%→24%+3pp
RECOVERING: Following pos-010 surge. 4.0% (current 3.75% + one 25bp hike) remains the modal outcome if hike occurs. $25 stake. September/October meeting timing is crucial. HOLD.
Strait of Hormuz Jul 31 (pos-012)
68%→55%-13pp
RISK: Trump at G7 said MOU 'isn't final' — 'if I don't like it, we'll go right back to dropping bombs.' This adds uncertainty despite signing scheduled for tomorrow. Market distinguishes between 'deal signed' and 'traffic normalized by July 31.' Entry 57¢, currently 55¢ — slightly below entry. Hold through signing outcome. If signing confirmed tomorrow, expect rapid recovery toward 75-80¢.
Zero Fed Cuts 2026 (pos-013)
84%→87%+3pp
NEAR-CERTAIN: 9 of 18 dots + median 3.8% + easing bias dropped = zero cuts locked in. Entry 77¢, currently 87¢ — +10¢ profit on $7 stake. HOLD to December 31 resolution.
US Recession 2026 (pos-009)
11%→10%-1pp
APPROACHING EXIT: Touching 10% YES level. Iran deal = consumer energy relief. GDPNow Q2 solid. No recession signals. Gap to FV (~8%) is now small. Consider exit at or below 10%. July GDP and NFP will confirm.
Screening Table
| # | Market | Expiry | Market Price | Fair Value | Gap (pp) | Direction | Volume | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fed Rate Hike 2026 | Dec 2026 | 57% | 66% | +9pp | HOLD YES | $$1.5M | 8/10 |
| 2 | Strait of Hormuz Jul 31 | Jul 31 | 55% | 82% | +27pp | HOLD YES | $$6.1M | 7/10 |
| 3 | Zero Fed Cuts 2026 | Dec 31 | 87% | 94% | +7pp | HOLD YES | $$34M | 9/10 |
| 4 | Fed Rate End 2026 = 4.0% | Dec 2026 | 24% | 35% | +11pp | HOLD YES | $$6.6M | 7/10 |
| 5 | US Recession 2026 | Jan 2027 | 10% | 8% | -2pp | CONSIDER EXIT — approaching FV | $$1.5M | 9/10 |
| 6 | BoJ +25bp Sep 2026 | Sep 2026 | 55% | 70% | +15pp | WATCH — potential new entry | $TBD | 6/10 |
| 7 | Inflation > 4.5% | Dec 2026 | 18% | 10% | -8pp | SELL YES | $$1M+ | 8/10 |
| 8 | US Unemp >=5.0% | Dec 2026 | 20% | 10% | -10pp | SELL YES | $$450K | 8/10 |
| 9 | US Unemp >=5.5% | Dec 2026 | 15% | 5% | -10pp | SELL YES | $$300K | 8/10 |
| 10 | Fed Rate <3.0% | Dec 2026 | 5% | 1% | -4pp | NEUTRAL | $$1M | 9/10 |
Market vs Fundamentals
Market Price (red) vs Estimated Fair Value (green) — %
Top 5 Opportunities
1
Fed Rate Hike in 2026 — YES
↑ BUY YES+9pp
Market price
57%
Fair value
66%
Gap: +9pp
This is the position's inflection day. pos-010 entered at 55¢, fell to 33¢ on Iran deal panic, and has now recovered to 57¢ — above entry. The driver: Polymarket finally priced in the hawkish dot plot (9/18 members, median 3.8%) with a 20pp overnight surge. CME is at 66%, so there's still a 9pp gap to close. October and September FOMC are the consensus meeting months for the hike. With core CPI at 4.2% and Warsh abstaining (giving hawks free rein), the path toward 65-70¢ on Poly is now open. Iran deal deflates energy prices but not core. HOLD through June NFP (July 2) and June CPI (July 14) — both remain strong catalysts for further re-pricing.
▵ Bull case
- 9 of 18 dots = institutional majority for 2026 hike
- CME at 66% — Poly at 57% = 9pp gap still to close
- September/October FOMC meetings = 4-5 months of catalyst risk
- Core CPI 4.2% — no disinflation from WTI in core services/shelter
- Warsh abstaining = lets hawks shape the dot plot without his personal veto
▿ Bear case
- WTI $75 — if energy deflation cascades to core by July CPI, thesis weakens
- Trump at G7 adds geopolitical noise; snap deal changes or reversal = inflation risk flip
- 9 hike dots in committee ≠ 9 votes — dots are projections, not commitments
2
Strait of Hormuz Normal by Jul 31 — YES
↑ BUY YES+27pp
Market price
55%
Fair value
82%
Gap: +27pp
pos-012 at 55¢, entered at 57¢ — slightly below entry. The 14-point MOU signed tomorrow (Bürgenstock) includes Article 6: 'Iran will immediately open the Strait of Hormuz.' WTI at $75 and falling confirms the market is pricing supply normalization. But Trump at G7 said the MOU 'isn't final' — 'if I don't like it, we'll go right back to dropping bombs.' This created uncertainty and kept the July 31 market from surging. Gap to FV is 27pp — the largest in the portfolio. If signing confirms tomorrow and no Trump sabotage, this should rapidly recover to 75-80¢. Hold with eyes on June 19 confirmation.
▵ Bull case
- Article 6: Iran commits to immediately open Hormuz
- WTI $75 = market pricing supply normalization
- UN Security Council oversight = enforcement mechanism
- US withdrawal and sanctions relief = strong Iranian incentive to comply
▿ Bear case
- Trump: 'if I don't like it, we'll go back to shooting' — personal veto risk
- Traffic 'normal by July 31' requires insurer/shipper confidence, takes weeks
- IRGC compliance ambiguity — MOU is with government, not IRGC commanders
3
Zero Fed Rate Cuts in 2026 — YES
↑ BUY YES+7pp
Market price
87%
Fair value
94%
Gap: +7pp
pos-013 at 87¢, entered at 77¢ — +10¢ profit on $7 stake. Zero cuts in 2026 is now near-certain: dot plot median 3.8% (up from 3.4%), easing bias dropped, 9 members project hike. There is literally zero institutional basis for a cut in 2026. CME shows zero cut probability. Gap to FV of 94¢ is 7pp. HOLD to December 31 resolution.
▵ Bull case
- Dot plot median 3.8% — implies at least one hike, zero cuts
- Easing bias dropped — no policy rate for cutting
- 9 members project hike — if anything, risk is to the upside on rates
▿ Bear case
- Catastrophic deflation shock (WTI to $50) could theoretically open a Dec cut window
4
Fed Rate End 2026 = 4.0% — YES
↑ BUY YES+11pp
Market price
24%
Fair value
35%
Gap: +11pp
pos-011 at 24¢, entered at 34¢. Following pos-010's recovery, 4.0% (3.75% + one 25bp hike) remains the modal single-hike outcome. October meeting is the consensus. Gap 11pp. $25 stake. Same catalyst stack as pos-010. HOLD.
▵ Bull case
- One hike = 4.0% end-year rate (exact pos-011 outcome)
- September/October consensus timing supports single-hike scenario
- dot plot median 3.8% includes 4.0% target
▿ Bear case
- Multiple hike scenario = 4.25% end-year, resolves pos-011 NO
- No-hike scenario still possible (37% of CME)
5
US Recession 2026 — NO
↓ SELL YES-2pp
Market price
10%
Fair value
8%
Gap: -2pp
pos-009 at 10% YES (entered at 28% YES, held NO). Strong profit. Gap to FV (8%) is now just 2pp. Iran deal lowers energy costs = consumer relief. GDPNow Q2 ~4%. No negative GDP quarter in sight. Consider exiting here or at 9% to lock in gains. Limited upside remaining — the big move is done.
▵ Bull case
- Iran deal consumer energy relief
- GDPNow Q2 ~4% — solid growth
- Hawkish Fed (not recessionary — they're hiking, not emergency cutting)
▿ Bear case
- Rate hike risk: if Sept/Oct hike coincides with slowdown, recession risk spikes
- Gap to FV now just 2pp — further profit limited