Daily Macro US
CPI YoY Apr.
3.8%
Unchanged
WTI Oil
~$99
-$2/b
FOMC vote
8-4
3 hawkish
Fed rate
3.50-3.75%
Unchanged
Unemployment Apr.
4.3%
Unchanged
Claims May 16
227K
+16K
Two major shocks this morning. First, the April 29 FOMC minutes: an 8-4 vote for the status quo, but with three hawkish dissenters (Hammack, Kashkari, Logan) who wanted to remove the easing bias from the statement — a signal that the FOMC majority plans no rate cuts in 2026. The fourth dissenter (Miran) wanted an immediate cut: the dissension is total, the institution fragmented. Kevin Warsh, officially Chair since May 15, is imposing a clearly more hawkish stance. Second shock: WTI falls to ~$99/barrel — below the symbolic $100 mark — as rumors of US-Iran negotiations rekindle hopes of a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. This oil pullback is structurally disinflationary: each dollar drop in WTI represents approximately -0.04pp on monthly CPI. As a result, Polymarket markets on May CPI (YoY >= 4.4% at 38%, = 4.3% at 40%) stand out as the major mispricing of the day. Conversely, the unemployment >= 5.0% market surged from 29% to 41% in reaction to the minutes — an excessive move according to the SPF consensus.
Today's Market Moves
Inflation 2026 > 4.5%
78%→77%-1pp
WTI $99 — our NO gains +1pp
US Unemployment >= 5.0%
29%→41%+12pp
Reaction to FOMC minutes — excessive move vs. SPF
Fed Rate < 3.25%
30%→26%-4pp
Hawkish minutes — our NO gains +4pp
US Unemployment >= 6.0%
20%→20%0pp
Stable
CPI May MoM = 0.6%
40%→40%0pp
Stable — confirmation WTI already weighing in
Screening Table
| # | Market | Expiry | Market Price | Fair Value | Gap (pp) | Direction | Volume | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CPI May YoY >= 4.4% | Jun 2026 | 38% | 12% | -26pp | SELL YES | $164K | 8/10 |
| 2 | CPI May YoY = 4.3% | Jun 2026 | 40% | 15% | -25pp | SELL YES | $164K | 8/10 |
| 3 | US Unemployment >= 5.0% | Dec 2026 | 41% | 18% | -23pp | SELL YES | $408K | 7/10 |
| 4 | CPI May MoM = 0.6% | Jun 2026 | 40% | 18% | -22pp | SELL YES | $17K | 7/10 |
| 5 | Inflation 2026 > 4.5% | Dec 2026 | 77% | 58% | -19pp | SELL YES | $1M | 8/10 |
| 6 | Fed Rate < 3.25% before 2027 | Dec 2026 | 26% | 8% | -18pp | SELL YES | $1M | 8/10 |
| 7 | US Unemployment >= 6.0% | Dec 2026 | 20% | 5% | -15pp | SELL YES | $408K | 7/10 |
| 8 | Fed Rate < 3.0% before 2027 | Dec 2026 | 16% | 5% | -11pp | SELL YES | $1M | 8/10 |
| 9 | May Unemployment Rate = 4.3% | Jun 2026 | 34% | 45% | +11pp | BUY YES | $N/A | 6/10 |
| 10 | May Unemployment Rate = 4.4% | Jun 2026 | 27% | 18% | -9pp | SELL YES | $N/A | 4/10 |
Market vs Fundamentals
Market Price (red) vs Estimated Fair Value (green) — %
Top 5 Opportunities
1
CPI May YoY >= 4.4% — NO
↓ SELL YES-26pp
Market price
38%
Fair value
12%
Gap: -26pp
Major mispricing of the day. WTI is at $99 today — below $100 for the first time since the Iran shock. In April, WTI was at $126, pushing CPI MoM to +0.6%. In May, energy contributes negatively. May CPI YoY will mechanically land around 3.4-3.7% given this pullback. Reaching 4.4% YoY with WTI at $99 is mathematically very difficult without a massive, unanticipated services or food shock. The market at 38% reflects a confusion between April's upside inflation risks (real) and May's disinflationary reality.
▵ Bull case
- WTI could rebound if ceasefire fails
- Services and shelter CPI structurally elevated
- Tariffs: second-round inflationary effect
- Unfavorable YoY base effects vs May 2025
▿ Bear case
- WTI $99 vs $126 in April: very negative energy contribution
- CPI Apr. 3.8% → May CPI expected 3.5-3.7% with energy declining
- McDonald's, Wendy's cutting prices: demand-side disinflation
- FOMC minutes: no cut → strong dollar → imported disinflation
2
CPI May YoY = 4.3% — NO
↓ SELL YES-25pp
Market price
40%
Fair value
15%
Gap: -25pp
Same logic as #1 but exact threshold (precisely 4.3%). The probability that May CPI YoY lands exactly on 4.3% when it was at 3.8% in April is doubly improbable: it would require an acceleration of +0.5pp in one month AND hitting that exact level. With WTI at $99, the acceleration is moving in the wrong direction. Note: both CPI markets share the same volume ($164K) — they likely belong to the same Polymarket event with different thresholds.
▵ Bull case
- Same arguments as above
- Exact threshold harder to invalidate (must be precisely 4.3%)
- Market may be right about convergence toward 4.3% via mean reversion
▿ Bear case
- WTI $99: most probable scenario is May CPI at 3.4-3.7% YoY
- 40% for exactly 4.3% = heavily overestimated probability
- Core CPI 2.8%: even rebounding, hard to reach 4.3% headline
3
US Unemployment >= 5.0% — NO
↓ SELL YES-23pp
Market price
41%
Fair value
18%
Gap: -23pp
ALERT: the market jumped from 29% to 41% today (+12pp) in reaction to the FOMC minutes. This repricing is excessive: the minutes contain no new information about employment — they reflect an internal monetary policy debate, not a deterioration in the labor market. The SPF caps at 4.5% max for 2026, with no institutional economist consensus at 5%+. To reach 5% by December requires +0.7pp from 4.3% in 7 months — comparable to 2008 in speed terms. Services PMI remains at 51.0. This move is an entry opportunity on NO.
▵ Bull case
- FOMC minutes: Fed acknowledges downside risks to growth
- Philly Fed -26.4: real manufacturing shock
- Claims 227K: upward trend over 4 weeks
- DOGE: public sector layoffs not fully accounted for
▿ Bear case
- Today's +12pp move with no new employment data: unfounded panic
- SPF: no institutional economist projects 5%+ for 2026
- Services PMI 51.0: expansion — services employment solid
- Fed would cut rates before reaching 5%
- Manufacturing = only 8% of US jobs
4
Inflation 2026 > 4.5% — NO
↓ SELL YES-19pp
Market price
77%
Fair value
58%
Gap: -19pp
Existing position that continues to perform (+1pp today, +5pp total since entry at 82%). WTI at $99 is the central catalyst: May CPI will land around 3.5-3.7%, far from 4.5% annually. The extreme inflationary thesis requires either an immediate Iran re-escalation (WTI > $130) or a cascade of secondary shocks not observed at this stage. The FOMC minutes paradoxically reinforce the position: a hawkish FOMC = more restrictive monetary policy = disinflationary over the medium term.
▵ Bull case
- Fragile ceasefire: WTI can rebound
- Second-round sticky services inflation
- Tariffs + weak dollar
- Divided FOMC: if Miran wins, cuts = reflation
▿ Bear case
- WTI $99: below $100 for the first time
- Core CPI only 2.8% — inflation concentrated in energy
- Minutes: 3 hawks want to remove easing bias → restrictive
- Weakened demand (fast food chains cutting prices)
5
Fed Rate < 3.25% before 2027 — NO
↓ SELL YES-18pp
Market price
26%
Fair value
8%
Gap: -18pp
The FOMC minutes are today's catalyst for this trade. An 8-4 vote with 3 members wanting to remove the easing bias — those members will not vote for two cuts in 2026. Warsh, the new Chair, is known as hawkish (he was a dissenter against QE under Bernanke). CME FedWatch now reflects about 70% probability of zero cuts. To reach 3.25%, TWO 25bp cuts are needed. The market at 26% was pricing in Miran plus a dovish scenario — the minutes invalidate that thesis. Most liquid trade in the portfolio ($1M vol).
▵ Bull case
- Miran (dovish dissenter) could gain allies
- Declared recession → Fed forced to cut
- WTI $99: if rapid disinflation, Powell-lite can act
- Trump political pressure on the Fed
▿ Bear case
- 3 hawkish members want to remove easing bias
- Warsh: anti-QE history, pro-price stability
- CPI 3.8%: cutting = abandoning the mandate
- CME FedWatch: 70% probability of 0 cuts in 2026