Daily Macro US
S&P 500
~7,545
Flat/Iran deal priced in
WTI Crude
$80.65
-$1.35 further decline
10Y Treasury
~4.43%
Easing on disinflation
Fed Hike Poly (pos-010)
33%
-22pp from 55c entry
BoJ Rate
1.0%
Hiked +25bp today, 7-1
FOMC
Day 1
Warsh presser Jun 17
FOMC Day 1 — Warsh presser tomorrow is the only thing that matters. BoJ hiked to 1.0% today (7-1 vote, highest since 1995). WTI fell further to $80.65 as Iran deal disinflation bids. Polymarket Fed hike 2026 drifted to 33% — pos-010 now -22pp adverse from 55c entry. This is the maximum-pressure moment for our hike positions. The thesis hasn't changed: core CPI 4.2%, NFP +172K, U/E 4.3% — the labor market and services inflation are unaffected by oil. BoJ diverging from Fed (hold) illustrates the global rates-higher theme. Warsh's June 17 presser is his defining moment: does he acknowledge the energy disinflation as transient (hawkish — pos-010 recovers) or does he signal relief (dovish — exit needed). CME FedWatch still prices ~55% for at-least-one-hike by December. The CME vs Polymarket gap is now 22pp — the widest since entry. One presser line could swing this 15pp in either direction.
Today's Market Moves
Fed Rate Hike 2026 (pos-010)
38%→33%-5pp
ADVERSE: 33% (was 55c entry). CME ~55% vs Polymarket 33% = 22pp gap — widest since entry. Do NOT exit before Warsh presser. Core thesis: energy ≠ core CPI. NFP +172K, U/E 4.3%, GDPNow 4.3% — these haven't moved. Warsh tone tomorrow is binary: hawk = recover to 45+, dove = reassess.
Fed Rate End 2026 = 4.0% (pos-011)
22%→18%-4pp
ADVERSE: Compressed further with hike odds. Small $25 stake — hold through presser. Same catalyst as pos-010.
Strait of Hormuz Jul 31 (pos-012)
57%→68%+11pp
IMPROVING: Iran deal progressing. WTI $80.65 confirms markets pricing Hormuz supply return. Formal signing June 19 on track. Target 85c. Pos-012 in profit.
Zero Fed Cuts 2026 (pos-013)
77%→80%+3pp
IMPROVING: Hike odds falling (33%) but cut odds also flat — zero cuts remains 80%+ likely. Core CPI 4.2% = no cut. Pos-013 in profit.
US Recession 2026 (pos-009)
13%→12%-1pp
IMPROVING: Iran deal + WTI $80 = consumer relief. GDPNow Q2 4.3%. Pos-009 NO strongly profitable.
Screening Table
| # | Market | Expiry | Market Price | Fair Value | Gap (pp) | Direction | Volume | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fed Rate Hike 2026 | Dec 2026 | 33% | 55% | +22pp | HOLD YES — Warsh presser tomorrow | $$1.5M | 6/10 |
| 2 | Strait of Hormuz Jul 31 | Jul 31 | 68% | 85% | +17pp | HOLD YES | $$5M | 8/10 |
| 3 | Fed Rate End 2026 = 4.0% | Dec 2026 | 18% | 28% | +10pp | HOLD YES | $$6.6M | 6/10 |
| 4 | Zero Fed Cuts 2026 | Dec 31 | 80% | 88% | +8pp | HOLD YES | $$34M | 7/10 |
| 5 | US Recession 2026 | Jan 2027 | 12% | 8% | -4pp | SELL YES | $$1.5M | 8/10 |
| 6 | Inflation > 4.5% | Dec 2026 | 22% | 12% | -10pp | SELL YES | $$1M+ | 8/10 |
| 7 | US Unemp >=5.0% | Dec 2026 | 22% | 11% | -11pp | SELL YES | $$450K | 8/10 |
| 8 | US Unemp >=5.5% | Dec 2026 | 17% | 5% | -12pp | SELL YES | $$300K | 8/10 |
| 9 | Fed Rate <3.0% | Dec 2026 | 7% | 1% | -6pp | NEUTRAL | $$1M | 9/10 |
| 10 | Inflation >5% | Dec 2026 | 16% | 6% | -10pp | SELL YES | $$400K | 8/10 |
Market vs Fundamentals
Market Price (red) vs Estimated Fair Value (green) — %
Top 5 Opportunities
1
Fed Rate Hike in 2026 — YES
↑ BUY YES+22pp
Market price
33%
Fair value
55%
Gap: +22pp
The moment of maximum pain and maximum opportunity. Polymarket has repriced from 55c (entry) to 33c on the Iran disinflation narrative. Yet CME FedWatch — backed by fed funds futures traders with real money — still prices ~55% for at least one 2026 hike. The 22pp gap is the widest in our holding period. The market is pricing purely on energy CPI; it's ignoring core. Warsh presser June 17 is the reset: one hawkish paragraph on services inflation and this re-rates 10-15pp instantly. Hold.
▵ Bull case
- CME 55% vs Polymarket 33% — 22pp gap, largest ever in this market
- Core CPI 4.2% entirely unaffected by Iran/oil
- BoJ hiking today confirms global rates-higher trend
- Warsh hawkish record — Senate confirmed 54-45 on inflation mandate
▿ Bear case
- WTI $80 — if June CPI prints 3.5% or below, core narrative collapses
- 33c is approaching break-even if true hike probability is 35-40%
- Warsh might play cautious on first presser
2
Strait of Hormuz Normal by Jul 31 — YES
↑ BUY YES+17pp
Market price
68%
Fair value
85%
Gap: +17pp
pos-012 entered at 57c, now ~68c as Iran deal cements. WTI at $80.65 is the market pricing Strait supply normalization. Formal signing June 19 in Switzerland — 30-day countdown starts. Gap still 17pp to FV of 85%. Holding and watching.
▵ Bull case
- WTI $80 already pricing Hormuz reopening
- Formal signing June 19 = 30-day clock starts = July 19 target
- US Navy enforcement backstop
▿ Bear case
- IRGC compliance ambiguity
- Trump reversal risk if nuclear talks stall
3
Fed Rate End 2026 = 4.0% — YES
↑ BUY YES+10pp
Market price
18%
Fair value
28%
Gap: +10pp
Compressed to 18c but the logic is unchanged: if a hike occurs, 4.0% remains modal. $25 stake. Holding through Warsh presser.
▵ Bull case
- One hike = 4.0% upper bound
- Symmetric recovery if Warsh hawks
▿ Bear case
- Hike probability compressed to 33%
4
Zero Fed Rate Cuts in 2026 — YES
↑ BUY YES+8pp
Market price
80%
Fair value
88%
Gap: +8pp
pos-013 improving at 80c. Ironically, as hike odds fall, the 'zero cuts' market benefits too — the market is pricing hold, not cut. Core CPI 4.2% means no cut in 2026 under any realistic scenario. Gap 8pp. Profitable.
▵ Bull case
- Core CPI 4.2% = no cut
- Warsh hawkish = zero cuts confirmed
- Hold is the most likely outcome
▿ Bear case
- If oil-driven deflation cascades to core by Sep, cut odds rise
5
US Recession 2026 — NO
↓ SELL YES-4pp
Market price
12%
Fair value
8%
Gap: -4pp
Iran deal + WTI $80 = real-wage boost for consumers. GDPNow Q2 4.3%. Market drifting to 12% YES from 28% entry. Pos-009 strongly profitable. Gap narrowing as we approach fair value — evaluate exit if market reaches 10% YES.
▵ Bull case
- Iran deal = lower energy costs = consumer relief
- GDPNow Q2 4.3%
▿ Bear case
- Rate hike risk if Warsh hawks — but even so, one hike ≠ recession