Daily Macro US
S&P 500
~7,394
+1.75% on Iran deal
WTI Crude
$86
-$5 Iran deal shock
10Y Treasury
4.53%
Easing on oil drop
Fed Hike Poly (pos-010)
50.5%
-4.5pp from 55c entry
CME Hike Odds (total)
~63%
vs Polymarket 50.5%
FOMC Countdown
4 days
Jun 16-17, blackout
Iran deal imminent + FOMC 4 days out. Trump confirmed 'documents are in final shape' on a US-Iran ceasefire — WTI cratered to $86 (-$4.80 from Jun 11, -$6 from our Jun 10 entry ref of $92). The disinflationary shock pushed Fed hike Polymarket to 50.5% — adverse 4.5pp from our pos-010 entry at 55c. However the CME vs Polymarket gap remains intact: CME total hike probability ~63% (one hike 43% + two hikes 20%) vs Polymarket 50.5% = still a 12pp gap. Key insight: Iran deal removes the energy premium, not core inflation. NFP +172K, U/E 4.3%, GDPNow Q2 4.3% — labor market and growth are unaffected. FOMC is in blackout (no Fed speakers). June 16-17 presser is the pivot: if Warsh flags H2 vigilance on core CPI, pos-010/011 re-rate. S&P rallied +1.75% to 7,394 on geopolitical de-escalation.
Today's Market Moves
Fed Rate Hike 2026 (pos-010)
55%→50%-5pp
ADVERSE: Iran deal = disinflationary shock. WTI $86 (-$6 from entry ref). Polymarket 50.5% (entry 55c). CME still 63%. Gap narrowed from 17pp to 12pp but persists. Thesis intact: core CPI elevated, labor hot. FOMC Jun 16-17 is the reset catalyst.
Fed Rate End 2026 = 4.0% (pos-011)
34%→34%0pp
FLAT: 34% unchanged. One-hike scenario still modal. Iran deal softens hike urgency but does not eliminate it. Holding 34c. FOMC presser is the catalyst.
US Recession 2026 (pos-009)
18%→16%-2pp
IMPROVING: Iran deal = geopolitical de-escalation + falling energy costs = consumer relief. Market drifting to 16-18%. Our NO position (28% YES entry) comfortably in profit.
Inflation 2026 > 4.5% (pos-001)
36%→32%-4pp
IMPROVING: WTI $86 removes the key upside risk to our NO position. Annual avg >4.5% now even harder to reach. Pos-001 NO improving.
Screening Table
| # | Market | Expiry | Market Price | Fair Value | Gap (pp) | Direction | Volume | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fed Rate Hike 2026 | Dec 2026 | 50% | 63% | +13pp | HOLD YES | $$1.5M | 7/10 |
| 2 | Fed Rate End 2026 = 4.0% | Dec 2026 | 34% | 40% | +6pp | HOLD YES | $$6.6M | 7/10 |
| 3 | US Unemp >=5.0% | Dec 2026 | 22% | 12% | -10pp | SELL YES | $$450K | 8/10 |
| 4 | US Recession 2026 | Jan 2027 | 17% | 9% | -8pp | SELL YES | $$1.5M | 8/10 |
| 5 | Inflation > 4.5% | Dec 2026 | 32% | 22% | -10pp | SELL YES | $$1M+ | 7/10 |
| 6 | June CPI MoM >0.5% | Jul 15 | 38% | 48% | +10pp | BUY YES | $$25K | 6/10 |
| 7 | Fed Rate <3.0% | Dec 2026 | 8% | 1% | -7pp | NEUTRAL | $$1M | 9/10 |
| 8 | US Unemp >=5.5% | Dec 2026 | 18% | 5% | -13pp | SELL YES | $$300K | 7/10 |
| 9 | US Unemp >=6.0% | Dec 2026 | 10% | 4% | -6pp | NEUTRAL | $$1M | 8/10 |
| 10 | Inflation >5% | Dec 2026 | 22% | 9% | -13pp | SELL YES | $$400K | 7/10 |
Market vs Fundamentals
Market Price (red) vs Estimated Fair Value (green) — %
Top 5 Opportunities
1
Fed Rate Hike in 2026 — YES
↑ BUY YES+13pp
Market price
50%
Fair value
63%
Gap: +13pp
Iran deal is a disinflationary shock on the energy component, not core. WTI dropped to $86 from $92, pulling Polymarket hike odds from 55% to 50.5%. However CME FedWatch (backed by fed funds futures) still shows ~63% total hike probability — the 12pp gap remains. Core thesis: NFP +172K, U/E 4.3%, GDPNow Q2 4.3% — the labor market and growth trajectory are unaffected by Iran. FOMC June 16-17 Warsh presser is the decisive catalyst. If core CPI vigilance is flagged, pos-010 re-rates toward 60+. Holding.
▵ Bull case
- CME 63% total hike vs Polymarket 50.5% — 12pp gap intact
- Core CPI still elevated (energy component falls but labor/services sticky)
- NFP +172K, U/E 4.3%, Q2 GDP 4.3% — economy absorbs a hike
- Warsh hawkish credentials — will separate core from energy at presser
▿ Bear case
- WTI $86 removes key inflation catalyst — if energy drops further, annual CPI cools
- Market pricing softening: 50.5% is approaching the 50¢ break-even
- Iran deal could extend ceasefire — disinflationary for 6-12 months
2
Fed Rate End 2026 = 4.0% — YES
↑ BUY YES+6pp
Market price
34%
Fair value
40%
Gap: +6pp
Unchanged at 34¢. If there is a hike (CME ~63%), 4.0% (upper bound = 3.75% + 25bp) remains the modal one-and-done outcome. Market is at 34% vs modal implied probability of ~38-40%. Iran deal doesn't change the math: one hike still resolves YES, and the 4.25% two-hike scenario now slightly less likely, which could actually make 4.0% relatively more valuable. Holding $25 stake.
▵ Bull case
- One hike from 3.75% = exactly 4.0% upper bound
- Iran deal slightly reduces two-hike probability — benefits 4.0% vs 4.25%
- Still underpriced at 34% vs implied ~40%
▿ Bear case
- Hike probability overall lower — correlated headwind
- Oil drop could accelerate disinflation, reducing urgency
3
US Unemployment >= 5.0% — NO
↓ SELL YES-10pp
Market price
22%
Fair value
12%
Gap: -10pp
Iran deal is labor-market neutral or positive (lower energy costs = higher real wages = less layoff pressure). NFP +172K, U/E 4.3% confirmed twice. GDPNow Q2 4.3%. Gap -10pp remains. Holding pos-004 NO.
▵ Bull case
- Lower energy costs = consumer and corporate relief
▿ Bear case
- U/E 4.3% stable x2
- NFP doubled consensus
- GDPNow Q2 4.3%
4
US Recession 2026 — NO
↓ SELL YES-8pp
Market price
17%
Fair value
9%
Gap: -8pp
Iran deal = geopolitical de-escalation + oil supply recovery = consumer tailwind. Market drifting to ~17% YES (from 28% at our NO entry). GDPNow Q2 4.3%. Pos-009 in strong profit. Holding.
▵ Bull case
- Rate hike risk remains
▿ Bear case
- GDPNow Q2 4.3%
- Iran deal = lower energy = consumer relief
- NFP strong
5
Inflation 2026 > 4.5% — NO
↓ SELL YES-10pp
Market price
32%
Fair value
22%
Gap: -10pp
WTI dropping to $86 is directly bullish for our NO position. Annual avg >4.5% required Jun-Dec to average 5.1%+ YoY. With oil normalizing, June CPI (Jul 14) will capture a collapsing energy component. The Iran spike premium is unwinding. Pos-001 NO improving materially.
▵ Bull case
- Core services still sticky
- June CPI captures transition month
▿ Bear case
- WTI $86 vs $92 entry ref — energy base effect flipping
- Deal collapse risk exists