Daily Macro US
WTI Crude
~$75
-10% week — Iran supply pricing complete
Brent
~$80
-10% week — lowest since early March
US Blockade
LIFTED
Article 4 of MOU fulfilled — blockade ended
Tankers
MOVING
First Iranian oil tankers exiting blockade zone
Hormuz Jul 31 (pos-012)
46%
-9pp despite signing — 'normal traffic' bar is high
Fed Hike Poly (pos-010)
57%
Unchanged (US markets closed — Juneteenth)
Juneteenth (US markets closed) + Iran MOU signing day. The most consequential Juneteenth in modern history: the US lifted the naval blockade on Iranian ports, first tankers carrying Iranian oil already exited the blockade zone, and the formal MOU ceremony at Bürgenstock confirmed the deal is now in effect. Trump signed the MOU electronically on June 17 at the G7 Versailles dinner; today the formal multilateral ceremony with Vance, Witkoff, Kushner, Araghchi and Ghalibaf completed the legal framework. The 60-day clock for final negotiations (nuclear program, sanctions, Lebanon) begins today. WTI ~$75, Brent ~$80 — oil down ~10% for the week as supply normalization is priced. The puzzle: despite all this progress, Polymarket Hormuz July 31 fell from 55¢ to 46¢. The market is not betting on the MOU — it's betting on whether TRAFFIC actually normalizes within 42 days. Insurance re-certification for tankers takes 2-3 weeks. Shipping companies need confirmed safe transit before dispatching vessels. The July 19 30-day milestone (US troop withdrawal completion) is the next key date. If traffic is visibly normalizing by then, pos-012 should re-price to 70-80¢. For now: hold, but the Polymarket discount to physical reality (tankers already moving) is the setup. End of week summary: pos-010 recovered from 33¢ low to 57¢ (above entry). Dot plot (9/18) is fully priced. pos-013 at 87¢. pos-009 approaching exit at 10%. Next catalysts: June NFP July 2, June CPI July 14.
Today's Market Moves
Strait of Hormuz Jul 31 (pos-012)
55%→46%-9pp
HOLD — PHYSICAL PROGRESS OUTPACES POLY: Blockade lifted (Article 4), tankers already moving. Poly at 46¢ vs entry 57¢ (-11pp). The market is pricing the gap between 'blockade lifted' and 'traffic normal.' Insurance re-certification takes 2-3 weeks. Key date: July 19 (30-day MOU milestone = US troops out, full Hormuz commitment). If traffic visibly building by July 19, Poly should re-price to 70-75¢. HOLD through July 19 checkpoint. Exit if stalls below 45¢.
Fed Rate Hike 2026 (pos-010)
57%→57%0pp
HOLD — US markets closed today (Juneteenth). pos-010 at 57¢, above entry 55¢. Thesis intact: 9/18 dots, median 3.8%, CME 66%. Next catalyst: NFP July 2, CPI July 14.
Zero Fed Cuts 2026 (pos-013)
87%→87%0pp
NEAR RESOLUTION: At 87¢ (+10¢ from entry). Zero cuts fully priced by dot plot. HOLD.
US Recession 2026 (pos-009)
10%→10%0pp
CONSIDER EXIT: At 10% YES. Iran deal done = consumer energy relief confirmed. GDPNow Q2 solid. Gap to FV ~2pp. Next week: check for 9-10% entry to exit.
Fed Rate End 2026 = 4.0% (pos-011)
24%→24%0pp
HOLD — Tracking pos-010. At 24¢ vs 34¢ entry. Sep/Oct hike = 4.0% is still modal. $25 stake.
Screening Table
| # | Market | Expiry | Market Price | Fair Value | Gap (pp) | Direction | Volume | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Strait of Hormuz Jul 31 | Jul 31 | 46% | 78% | +32pp | HOLD YES — physical progress ahead of Poly | $$6.1M | 6/10 |
| 2 | Fed Rate Hike 2026 | Dec 2026 | 57% | 66% | +9pp | HOLD YES | $$2.2M | 8/10 |
| 3 | Zero Fed Cuts 2026 | Dec 31 | 87% | 94% | +7pp | HOLD YES | $$34M | 9/10 |
| 4 | Fed Rate End 2026 = 4.0% | Dec 2026 | 24% | 35% | +11pp | HOLD YES | $$6.6M | 7/10 |
| 5 | US Recession 2026 | Jan 2027 | 10% | 8% | -2pp | CONSIDER EXIT — 2pp from FV | $$1.5M | 9/10 |
Market vs Fundamentals
Market Price (red) vs Estimated Fair Value (green) — %
Top 5 Opportunities
1
Strait of Hormuz Normal by Jul 31 — YES
↑ BUY YES+32pp
Market price
46%
Fair value
78%
Gap: +32pp
The physical facts are unambiguous: US naval blockade lifted (Article 4 of MOU fulfilled), first Iranian oil tankers already exiting. The MOU is signed and in effect. Bürgenstock multilateral ceremony confirmed. WTI -10% on the week = supply normalization priced. Yet Polymarket July 31 is at 46¢, below our 57¢ entry. The disconnect: markets are correctly noting that 'traffic returns to normal' requires: (1) insurer re-certification (2-3 weeks), (2) shipping companies sending vessels (requires confirmed safety), (3) ports on both sides clearing backlogs. The 42-day window to July 31 is tight but achievable. Key milestone: July 19 (30-day mark, US troops out, full commitment). If tanker transits visibly accelerating by July 8-12, Poly re-prices to 70¢+. HOLD.
▵ Bull case
- Blockade physically lifted — Article 4 fulfilled
- First tankers already moving — days 1-2 of normalization
- WTI -10% on the week = market pricing supply recovery
- July 19 = 30-day deadline milestone, creates pressure for Iran compliance
- UN Security Council oversight creates enforcement mechanism
▿ Bear case
- Insurance re-certification takes 2-3 weeks — traffic lag is real
- IRGC compliance ≠ government compliance
- Trump 'if I don't like it' — personal veto risk lingers
- Bürgenstock talks postponed — slight diplomatic friction signal
2
Fed Rate Hike in 2026 — YES
↑ BUY YES+9pp
Market price
57%
Fair value
66%
Gap: +9pp
pos-010 end-of-week status: entered at 55¢, fell to 33¢ low (Iran deal panic), recovered to 57¢ (above entry). This week's FOMC dot plot (9/18 hike, median 3.8%) is the strongest institutional validation we've had. CME FedWatch at 66%. Polymarket at 57% — still a 9pp gap to close. October and September are the consensus target meetings. Iran energy deflation (WTI -10%) is real but doesn't affect core CPI (services/shelter). HOLD. June NFP July 2 and June CPI July 14 are the next catalysts for re-pricing.
▵ Bull case
- 9 of 18 dots = institutional majority for hike
- CME at 66% — Poly 57% = 9pp gap
- Core CPI 4.2% — unaffected by WTI decline
- Warsh's non-participation in dot plot = hawks have free rein
▿ Bear case
- Iran energy deflation could filter to core over Q3
- Warsh personal stance still unknown — dots ≠ Chair's commitment
3
Zero Fed Rate Cuts in 2026 — YES
↑ BUY YES+7pp
Market price
87%
Fair value
94%
Gap: +7pp
pos-013 end-of-week: 87¢ (+10¢ from 77¢ entry). Zero cuts is essentially certain given 9/18 hike dots, median 3.8%, easing bias dropped. Gap to FV is 7pp. HOLD to resolution.
▵ Bull case
- 9 hike dots
- Easing bias dropped
- Core CPI 4.2%
▿ Bear case
- Catastrophic deflation shock could theoretically open a Dec cut window
4
Fed Rate End 2026 = 4.0% — YES
↑ BUY YES+11pp
Market price
24%
Fair value
35%
Gap: +11pp
pos-011 at 24¢ (entered 34¢). Still underwater but recovering with pos-010. Single-hike scenario (Sep or Oct) = 4.0% year-end. Gap 11pp. $25 stake. HOLD.
▵ Bull case
- One hike = 4.0% exact outcome
- September/October consensus timing supports single-hike
▿ Bear case
- Multiple hikes OR zero hikes both resolve NO
5
US Recession 2026 — NO
↓ SELL YES-2pp
Market price
10%
Fair value
8%
Gap: -2pp
pos-009: entered at 28% YES (held NO), now at 10% YES — strong profit. Iran deal done = consumer energy relief confirmed. GDPNow Q2 ~4%. No recession signal. Gap to FV (8%) is just 2pp. Look to exit next week. Limited upside remaining — the thesis has played out and the risk/reward no longer justifies the position.
▵ Bull case
- Iran deal energy consumer relief
- GDPNow Q2 ~4%
- Fed hike (not emergency cut) = recessionary fear reduced
▿ Bear case
- September/October hike in an already slowing economy = recession tail risk
- Only 2pp from FV — further profit limited