Daily Macro US
WTI Oil
$88.90
-$4-8 from yesterday's spike
Brent crude
$93.71
Pulling back on deal optimism
ECB meeting
TOMORROW
June 5 — +25bp near-certain
NFP June 6
Friday
Consensus ~+150K, U/E 4.3%
May CPI
June 10
6 days — Cleveland nowcast 3.3-3.5%
Cleveland nowcast
3.3–3.5%
May CPI YoY — locked in
Oil pulled back sharply today — WTI fell from yesterday's $93-97 spike to $88.90, partially reversing the escalation-driven surge. The catalyst: diplomatic channels are creeping back into view despite continued violence. Iran drones struck Kuwait's airport (1 killed), yet the broader ceasefire framework is technically still in place and negotiations have not formally collapsed. Markets are reading today's oil move as a 'deal delay, not collapse' signal — consistent with our thesis. The partial oil reversal is directly positive for our longer-dated positions (Inflation >4.5%, Recession), as it reduces the H2 2026 energy cost trajectory we revised upward on June 3. We walk back our fair value slightly: Inflation >4.5% fair value moves from 32% back toward 29%. The week-ahead calendar is the most catalyst-dense of the year for this portfolio. ECB meets tomorrow (June 5) — a +25bp hike is near-certain at 97% on Polymarket. Our ECB June position was exited on June 2 (HICP 3.1% triggered our pre-set invalidation). NFP releases Friday June 6 — consensus is approximately +150K with unemployment expected to hold at 4.3%. A strong print would directly compress our Unemployment >=5% and Recession positions. May CPI releases June 10 — now 6 days away — and will close pos-006, pos-007, and pos-008 simultaneously. The three CPI positions are completely unaffected by any of this week's events: May data is locked in at WTI $87-88 and Cleveland nowcast 3.3-3.5%.
Today's Market Moves
Inflation 2026 > 4.5%
65%→64%-1pp
WTI pulled back to $88.90 — deal delay not collapse. Fair value revised back to 29% (from 32%). Gap widens to 35pp. Confidence 8 (restored from 7).
US Recession 2026
26%→24%-2pp
Oil pullback eases supply-shock recession premium. Gap back to 12pp. NFP Friday key.
US Unemployment >= 5.0%
34%→32%-2pp
Oil pullback reduces supply-shock hiring-freeze risk. Gap -12pp. NFP Friday critical.
CPI May MoM = 0.6%
33%→32%-1pp
Stable — May data locked. June 10 in 6 days. Cleveland nowcast 0.2-0.3%.
CPI May YoY >= 4.4%
14%→13%-1pp
Stable — May closed. June 10 in 6 days.
Screening Table
| # | Market | Expiry | Market Price | Fair Value | Gap (pp) | Direction | Volume | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inflation 2026 > 4.5% | Dec 2026 | 64% | 29% | -35pp | SELL YES | $1M+ | 8/10 |
| 2 | CPI May MoM = 0.6% | Jun 2026 | 32% | 4% | -28pp | SELL YES | $17K | 9/10 |
| 3 | CPI May YoY = 4.3% | Jun 2026 | 15% | 4% | -11pp | SELL YES | $164K | 9/10 |
| 4 | CPI May YoY >= 4.4% | Jun 2026 | 13% | 3% | -10pp | SELL YES | $164K | 9/10 |
| 5 | US Unemployment >= 5.0% | Dec 2026 | 32% | 20% | -12pp | SELL YES | $450K | 8/10 |
| 6 | US Recession 2026 | Dec 2026 | 24% | 14% | -10pp | NEUTRAL | $890K | 8/10 |
| 7 | US Unemployment >= 6.0% | Dec 2026 | 15% | 8% | -7pp | NEUTRAL | $1M | 8/10 |
| 8 | Fed Rate < 3.0% before 2027 | Dec 2026 | 10% | 5% | -5pp | NEUTRAL | $1M | 9/10 |
| 9 | May Unemployment Rate = 4.3% | Jun 2026 | 35% | 38% | +3pp | NEUTRAL | $12K | 6/10 |
| 10 | Fed Hold June FOMC | Jun 2026 | 97% | 99% | +2pp | NEUTRAL | $5M | 9/10 |
Market vs Fundamentals
Market Price (red) vs Estimated Fair Value (green) — %
Top 5 Opportunities
1
Inflation 2026 > 4.5% — NO
↓ SELL YES-35pp
Market price
64%
Fair value
29%
Gap: -35pp
Oil's pullback today — WTI from $95 to $88.90 — is the most important single development for this position since yesterday's escalation spike. The Iran drones hit Kuwait's airport (1 killed), yet the ceasefire framework technically holds and the 60-day MOU negotiations have not formally collapsed. Markets are pricing 'delay, not collapse' — which is our base case. We walk back fair value from 32% to 29% as the oil trajectory moderates. The 35pp gap is the widest it has been since June 1. At WTI $89, the annual average math is straightforward: Jan-May CPI averaged 3.2-3.4%, and June-December would need to average 5.1-5.5% to push annual average above 4.5%. That requires sustained $110+ oil for 7 months. Not our base case. Confidence restored to 8. The ECB hiking tomorrow and NFP on Friday are the week's key calibration points.
▵ Bull case
- Iran drones hit Kuwait airport despite ceasefire — deal still not signed, collapse risk remains
- WTI pullback may be temporary: if negotiations break down formally, oil reverts to $95+
- ECB hiking June 5 shows global inflation environment remains elevated
- Annual average: if June prints 4.0%+ on energy, cumulative average inches toward 4.0%
▿ Bear case
- WTI $88.90: back to the range where deal-driven disinflation was operating — oil trajectory moderating
- Annual average math: even with June at 4.0%, full-year average stays well below 4.5%
- Ceasefire framework technically intact despite violence — 'delay not collapse' is base case
- May CPI June 10: will print 3.3-3.5%, confirming disinflation regardless of June escalation
- Q2 GDPNow 4.3% + S&P near record: growth and equity markets are not pricing a sustained oil shock
2
CPI May MoM = 0.6% — NO
↓ SELL YES-28pp
Market price
32%
Fair value
4%
Gap: -28pp
6 days to resolution. May data is fully captured. The ECB hiking tomorrow, the Iran violence, and NFP on Friday are all irrelevant to this position. Cleveland nowcast: 0.2-0.3% MoM. At 32% YES, this prices a 0.6% print at 8× our fair value. The highest-certainty position in the portfolio.
▵ Bull case
- WTI averaged above $110 for first 3 weeks of May — partial energy in the monthly average
- Core services persistence could add unexpected tenths
▿ Bear case
- May is closed: all June developments are outside the measurement window
- WTI final week $87-88: energy deflated May's monthly average materially
- Cleveland nowcast 0.2-0.3%: 0.6% is a 5-sigma miss of the professional forecasting consensus
- 6 days to resolution — no new energy inputs can alter the outcome
3
CPI May YoY = 4.3% — NO
↓ SELL YES-11pp
Market price
15%
Fair value
4%
Gap: -11pp
Cleveland nowcast 3.3-3.5%. A 4.3% print requires 0.8-1.0pp above the nowcast range. May is closed. At 15% YES, this is still pricing a tail event at nearly 4× fair value. 6 days to resolution. Entry was 40% YES — moved 25pp in our favour.
▵ Bull case
- Core services persistence — services CPI running above 3% annualised
- ECB hiking shows global services inflation stickier than expected
▿ Bear case
- Cleveland nowcast 3.3-3.5%: 4.3% requires an impossible deviation from finalized energy data
- May measurement period closed May 31 — no June event enters the data
- 6 days to resolution
4
CPI May YoY >= 4.4% — NO
↓ SELL YES-10pp
Market price
13%
Fair value
3%
Gap: -10pp
Entry 38% YES, now 13% — 25pp moved in our favour. May is closed. 4.4%+ requires 1.0-1.1pp above the Cleveland nowcast range — essentially impossible given the finalized WTI trajectory. 6 days to resolution. Maximum conviction.
▵ Bull case
- ECB hiking June 5 signals global inflation stickier than models suggest
- Tariff pass-through to goods could add unexpected tenths
▿ Bear case
- May data is locked: June ECB, NFP, and Iran developments don't enter May CPI
- Cleveland nowcast 3.3-3.5%: 4.4%+ requires impossible energy reversal for a closed period
- Entry 38%, current 13%: market already correcting toward fair value
5
US Unemployment >= 5.0% — NO
↓ SELL YES-12pp
Market price
32%
Fair value
20%
Gap: -12pp
Oil pulling back to $88.90 directly reduces the supply-shock hiring-freeze risk that drove this market to 34% yesterday. We revise the market price back to 32% and fair value to 20% — gap widens back to 12pp. The structural case is unchanged: SPF forecast caps unemployment at 4.5%, Q2 GDPNow is 4.3%, and the S&P is near record highs. NFP June 6 (2 days away) is the most important near-term catalyst — consensus is +150K with unemployment expected to hold at 4.3%. A positive print at or above consensus would push this market materially lower, widening our gap significantly.
▵ Bull case
- Iran violence continues: drones on Kuwait airport signal supply-chain disruption ongoing
- Q1 GDP 1.6% revised: weaker growth base could translate to slower Q2-Q3 hiring
- AI displacement in white-collar roles could accelerate faster than models assume
▿ Bear case
- SPF forecast: economists cap unemployment at 4.5% — 5%+ requires 800K+ job losses
- Q2 GDPNow 4.3%: economy growing strongly — mass layoffs inconsistent with this trajectory
- NFP consensus +150K: strong positive print Friday would compress this market immediately
- S&P near record: equity markets are not pricing mass unemployment