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Daily US Global Rates Portfolio Archive Method
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Today's macro snapshot
Key indicators — Jul 10, 2026
Cleveland Nowcast
3.92%
FIFTH straight session — June CPI is baked; only rounding risk remains. Print Tuesday 8:30 ET
June CPI Market (pos-014)
20c
15 → 20c since entry; crowd now splits 3.8 (49c) / 3.7 (30c) — leaning soft from below
10Y Treasury
4.55%
TOUCHED ~4.60 Wednesday (7-wk high) — pos-017 needs just ~25bp now; FV 32 → 38
Fed Hike 2026 (pos-010)
52.5%
Pulled back from 58 WHILE futures price 34.4bp of hikes — FedWatch gap re-widens to ~10pp; deploy gate armed
Jobless Claims
215K
Lowest since May 23 — labor stabilizing, no-cut case intact (pos-013)
Equities
S&P 7,543
+0.81% Thu, Nasdaq +1.3% on chips; gold rebounds to ~$4,120
How it works
A three-step process, run daily

Each morning, we run the same systematic process across all US macro Polymarket markets. No discretion. Every gap is documented.

1
Screen the markets
We extract 10+ US macro Polymarket markets daily — inflation, unemployment, Fed rate, recession — and retrieve the current YES contract price, expiry date, and exact resolution clause.
2
Estimate fair value
For each market we build an independent probability estimate from official sources: BLS releases, the Philadelphia Fed Survey of Professional Forecasters, Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting, and CME FedWatch implied probabilities. The gap between market price and our estimate is the signal.
3
Size with Kelly Criterion
Opportunities ranked by gap (≥10pp threshold) and conviction score (1–10). Stakes are sized with a half-Kelly formula, adjusted for liquidity (high/medium/low) and confidence multipliers, then normalized to a $1,000 total portfolio budget.
Today's top opportunity
Highest-ranked market mispricing

Updated each morning. All positions tracked live via Polymarket API.

Jul 10, 2026 · Rank #1 · Confidence 7/10
June CPI YoY = 3.9%
The week in one position: entered at 15c against a crowd at 3.8, watched the crowd stampede to 4.0-4.2 and back, and now watch it try 3.7 — while the model prints 3.92 five days running. At 20c the market pays 4:1 that Cleveland's June arithmetic, with every major input already ingested, rounds where it says it rounds. Tuesday 8:30 ET ends the argument either way, and we'll publish the post-mortem whichever way it goes.
+25pp
Gap vs fair value
View full analysis with all 5 ranked opportunities → Browse the full archive →
Data sources
Official data only — no guesswork

Every fair value estimate is built exclusively from government publications and institutional forecasts. No paid data. No proprietary models.

BLS — Bureau of Labor Statistics
bls.gov →
Federal Reserve / FOMC
federalreserve.gov →
Philadelphia Fed — SPF
philadelphiafed.org →
Cleveland Fed — Nowcasting
clevelandfed.org →
NY Fed — DSGE Model
newyorkfed.org →
BEA — GDP & PCE
bea.gov →
Polymarket Gamma API
polymarket.com →
CME FedWatch Tool
cmegroup.com →
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10 markets screened · 5 ranked opportunities · Live portfolio tracking

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