Paper Portfolio
$1,000 theoretical portfolio — Kelly-sized. Live YES prices from the Polymarket API.
Total P&L (realized + unrealized)
+$611.08
unrealized loads live
Unrealized P&L (open)
—
5 open · $332.0 staked · Live prices
Realized P&L · Win rate
+$611.08
79% win rate (11/14 correct)
Open Positions5
| Market | Side | Entry YES | Live YES | Stake | P&L | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Unemployment 2026 >= 5.0% | NO | 25% | — | $100 | — | Aug 25: YES 12.4% (entry 25) — our NO worth 87.6c, +$16.80. Gave back one tenth of yesterday's three-point jump, which is the smallest possible amount of comfort. Bid 11.2 / ask 13.6, so the mid is still arithmetic rather than a traded level. The Friday-positioning theory we floated yesterday now has a confirmed date: the BLS preliminary annual benchmark revision to establishment payrolls lands 10:00 ET on Friday Aug 28, the same morning Warsh gives his first Jackson Hole keynote. Knowing when the event is does not prove anyone is trading it, but it turns a vague worry into a dated one. Underlying facts unchanged and not close: unemployment 4.1%, GDPNow Q3 4.0% (Atlanta Fed, verified, stamped Aug 18), and 5.0% by year end needs roughly 1.4m more unemployed in four months. A benchmark revision rewrites history; it does not create nine tenths of a point between now and December. FV on the YES stays 8, so NO worth 92 against 87.6 = +4.4pp, under the bar. Review line unchanged at YES below 8c. Hold. |
| Fed Rate Hike in 2026 | YES | 55% | — | $100.0 | — | Aug 25: YES 56.5% (runner $100 @ 55c) — +$2.73, up another point with no new headline behind it. Second consecutive session the market has moved away from us: FV stays 55, so we are marked 1.5pp ABOVE our own number, up from 0.5pp yesterday. Yesterday we published the cost of refusing to add at 49.5c on Friday under the 10pp bar. The gap has now inverted, and the same rule that stopped us buying something cheap is stopping us chasing something we think is slightly expensive — which is what a rule is for. NOT raising FV to fix the optics: the tariff arithmetic is unchanged (50% on ~$20bn of Canadian goods is ~$10bn of duties in a $30tn economy; energy, potash and critical minerals carved out; Carney's retaliation starts Sep 8), while Brent is $91.58, -0.6% on the day and -2.7% over two sessions. The genuine uncertainty is Warsh, not the tariff: if Friday's Jackson Hole keynote confirms he prefers accelerated QT to rate hikes, a hawkish chair could be bearish for a contract that only pays on the rate. Floor 48c and trim >72c both unchanged. Half banked at 66.5c on Jul 27 for +$20.91. |
| Fed Rate End 2026 = 4.0% | YES | 34% | — | $25 | — | Aug 25: YES 30.6% (entry 34) — -$2.50, down 0.15 and comfortably inside noise. Ladder today: 3.5% 8.1 / 3.75% 43.25 / 4.0% 30.6 / 4.25% 11.3, essentially Monday's distribution shifted a hair further toward exactly one hike. FV 30, marked 0.6pp above it. A $25 ticket in a market doing a few hundred dollars a day costs more to exit than the gap is worth. Hold to resolution, no add. Efficiency review still armed at 40c. |
| Zero Fed Rate Cuts in 2026 | YES | 77.6% | — | $82 | — | Aug 25: YES 86.4% (entry 77.6) — +$9.30, up a third of a point. FV stays 88 for a 1.6pp gap. The best news of the day for this position did not come from a price: Atlanta Fed GDPNow has Q3 at 4.0%, VERIFIED AT SOURCE today, stamped Aug 18 with the next update Wednesday. Four percent annualised growth alongside a core PCE nowcast of 3.29% YoY describes a committee with no cutting case at all, which is the entire thesis in one sentence. Cleveland Fed nowcast re-checked at source and UNCHANGED, page stamped 08/24: July PCE 0.15% MoM / 3.65% YoY, core PCE 0.25% MoM / 3.29% YoY; August headline PCE 0.34% / 3.73%, core PCE 0.27% / 3.34%. No fresh reading today and we say so rather than presenting yesterday's as today's. Wednesday Aug 26 08:30 ET is the first genuine test in three weeks: July PCE with the Q2 GDP second estimate and durable goods in one release. Honest soft spot unchanged: continuing claims 1.799M and rising, plus Friday's benchmark payroll revision — neither operates on a 2026 timescale. Efficiency trim armed at 90c, not touched. |
| 10Y Treasury Touches 4.8% Before 2027 | YES | 16.5% | — | $25 | — | Aug 25: YES 67.0% mid, 65 bid / 69 ask (entry 16.5) — +$76.52, mid unchanged, bid up one point to 65c. FV FROZEN AT 72, deliberately NOT raised to the 73 today's arithmetic gives. Reason, published at the top of both letters: yesterday's consistency check does not reproduce. We wrote that the same barrier model returned ~16 on the 5.00% leg against a 16.0c market. Today, with the 10Y at 4.7050%, 92 business sessions to Dec 31 and sigma 38.37bp, the 5.00% barrier of 29.5bp gives 2*(1-Phi(0.7689)) = 44.2% raw and 40 after the same 0.9045 buyback haircut — against a 17.5c market. We cannot account for the difference. A model that just failed its own consistency test does not get to award us a fair-value upgrade in the same session it failed. We also REFUSE the 5.00% leg outright despite a nominal 22pp gap, more than twice our entry bar: fixed-volatility barrier models over-price far touches by construction, because a 30bp grind to 5.00% would summon exactly the response that stops it (three seen this month — doubled long-end buybacks with a reported ~$1trn general-account capacity behind them, the joint yen intervention funded by selling euros, and the FIMA limit request). Our own leg survives that objection: barrier 9.5bp is inside ordinary weekly noise and at 67c the market broadly agrees with us. Own-leg arithmetic for the record: 2*(1-Phi(9.5/38.37)) = 80.4% raw, 72.8 after haircut. Mechanism unbroken and global: Bund 3.2550% near a 2011 high, JGB 2.8950% at a 1996 high, gilt 5.0676% above 5%, US buyback window expires Nov 4 while the barrier runs to Dec 31. GATE UNCHANGED AND NOT RAISED: take-profit is a 66c BID; bid is 65c, one point away and one point closer than yesterday. Exit <10c only if 10Y <4.25 — unchanged. NEW STANDING RULE from today: no fair-value increase on this position until the 5.00% consistency check reproduces. |
Closed Positions14
| Market | Side | Entry YES | Exit YES | Stake | P&L | Outcome | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US GDP Q2 = 1.5-2.0% (advance) | YES | 18% | 100% | $25 | +$113.89 | Correct | WON. BEA Q2 advance landed inside 1.5-2.0%, exactly the GDPNow anchor (~1.7). The fully automated Friday-evening entry (18c, condition-gated) returns +$113.89 — the book's biggest single winner and validation of the conditional-entry system: model beat crowd, rule beat discretion. |
| Fed Rate Hike in 2026 (half-trim) | YES | 55% | 66.5% | $100.0 | +$20.91 | Correct | Half of pos-010 sold at 66.5c per the published >64c trim rule — thesis partially realized into elevated hike odds (38%%) as the oil engine cooled. First profit booked on the Fed complex. |
| China GDP Q2 = 4.6-4.9% | YES | 72.5% | 0% | $25 | -$25.00 | Incorrect | NBS printed 4.3% — outside the bracket. The five-session seller was right: Beijing chose candor (slowest growth since Q4 2022, Iran oil shock + weak demand). The print-regularity thesis assumed the statistical regime of 2020-2025; regimes change exactly when stimulus needs a permission slip. -$25, tuition for a regime lesson. |
| June CPI YoY = 3.9% | YES | 15% | 0% | $75 | -$75.00 | Incorrect | June CPI printed 3.5% YoY — below every forecast: our bracket (3.9), the crowd's favorite (3.8), and Cleveland's frozen 3.92. The model we trusted missed by 0.42pp, its worst miss in our sample; energy passthrough ran harder than the nowcast could see and core went flat (0.0% MoM). The winning bracket (≤3.6%) traded at ~2c pre-print — nobody held it. Full $75 stake lost. Second loss of the book; sized at 7.5% of budget for exactly this. Lesson kept: a frozen model is a point estimate, not a distribution — we paid 5:1 odds for its mode and the whole distribution shifted left. |
| Fed Hike at July 29 Meeting | YES | 14.6% | 24.5% | $25 | +$16.95 | Correct | Exited Jul 8 pre-minutes at 24.5c: +68% in 22 hours. The thesis was convergence to FedWatch (~26%), not a view on the decision — converged, so out. Fastest win of the book. |
| Strait of Hormuz Normal by Jul 31 | YES | 55% | 14.5% | $75 | -$55.23 | Incorrect | Exit trigger fired Jul 6: <20c before the Jul 19 checkpoint without confirmed transit recovery. IRGC corridor warnings + 8 weekend U-turns broke the 60-calls/day ramp thesis. First loss of the book. Sized at 7.5% of budget for exactly this scenario. |
| Fed Rate < 3.0% before 2027 | NO | 16% | 5.5% | $125 | +$15.62 | Correct | Early profit-take Jul 6 at 5.5c. The <3.0% path was dead (Fed at 3.50-3.75% with a hike bias). Same capital-efficiency logic as the pos-001 exit. |
| US Unemployment 2026 >= 6.0% | NO | 18% | 6.5% | $100 | +$14.02 | Correct | Early profit-take Jul 6 at 6.5c. Edge exhausted — remaining ~$8 over six months wasn't worth $114 of tied capital. Recycled into the zero-cuts add. |
| Inflation 2026 > 4.5% | NO | 82% | 42% | $125 | +$277.78 | Correct | Early exit Jun 23 at ~42% YES (held NO). Iran MOU + WTI falling to $73 from $92 removes the path to 4.5%+ CPI in any remaining month. May peaked at 4.2% — the high water mark. Energy deflation now dominant. Extracted ~40pp from 82% YES entry. +$277.78 realized (+222% on stake). |
| US Recession 2026 | NO | 28% | 10% | $200 | +$50.00 | Correct | Exited Jun 22 at 10% YES (held NO). Hit stated exit target. FV ~8% — 2pp gap remaining not worth PCE Jun 25 two-way risk. Extracted ~18pp from 28% YES entry. |
| CPI May MoM = 0.6% | NO | 40% | 0% | $25 | +$16.67 | Correct | May CPI printed 0.5% MoM (below 0.6% threshold). Resolved NO on Jun 10. |
| CPI May YoY = 4.3% | NO | 40% | 0% | $150 | +$100.00 | Correct | May CPI printed 4.2% YoY (below 4.3% threshold). Resolved NO on Jun 10. |
| CPI May YoY >= 4.4% | NO | 38% | 0% | $150 | +$91.94 | Correct | May CPI printed 4.2% YoY (below 4.4% threshold). Resolved NO on Jun 10. |
| May Unemployment Rate = 4.3% | YES | 34% | 100% | $25 | +$48.53 | Correct | BLS confirmed May U/E = 4.3% on Jun 5 NFP report. Resolved YES. |
Cumulative P&L over time — $ (realized; live unrealized loads in browser)