Paper Portfolio
$1,000 theoretical portfolio — Kelly-sized. Live YES prices from the Polymarket API.
Total P&L (realized + unrealized)
+$576.28
unrealized loads live
Unrealized P&L (open)
—
7 open · $532 staked · Live prices
Realized P&L · Win rate
+$576.28
90% win rate (9/10 correct)
Open Positions7
| Market | Side | Entry YES | Live YES | Stake | P&L | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Unemployment 2026 >= 5.0% | NO | 25% | — | $100 | — | Jul 10: YES 12.6% (entry 25) — +$17 MTM. Claims falling again → trigger risk receding. Hold. |
| Fed Rate Hike in 2026 | YES | 55% | — | $200 | — | Jul 10: YES 52.5% (entry 55) — pulled back from 58 even as fed funds futures price 34.4bp of 2026 hikes (Williams flagged AI-demand inflation, claims fell to 215K). The FedWatch gap has RE-WIDENED to ~10pp. Reserve deploy gate now armed: hot CPI (≥0.3% MoM) with price ≤52c → deploy $100. Floor 48c. |
| Fed Rate End 2026 = 4.0% | YES | 34% | — | $25 | — | Jul 10: YES 29.2% (entry 34) — best level since entry, -$3.5 MTM. Rides the CPI gate with pos-010. |
| Zero Fed Rate Cuts in 2026 | YES | 77.6% | — | $82 | — | Jul 10: YES 77.6% (blended entry 77.6) — flat at cost. Claims at 215K (lowest since May) keep the no-cut case intact. FV 85; exit below 72c. |
| June CPI YoY = 3.9% | YES | 15% | — | $75 | — | Jul 10: YES 20% (entry 15) — +$25 MTM, market converging to the model. Cleveland: 3.92 for a FIFTH straight session (June is baked; only July's nowcast moved). Crowd now splits 3.8 (48.9) / 3.7 (29.7) / 3.9 (20) — leaning softer than the model from below now. We hold the mode. Resolves Tuesday 8:30 ET. |
| China GDP Q2 = 4.6-4.9% | YES | 72.5% | — | $25 | — | Jul 10: YES 67.5% (entry 72.5) — drifted 5.5pp on no visible news, -$1.7 MTM. Print ~Wednesday settles it; conf stays 5, no add into drift we can't explain. |
| 10Y Treasury Touches 4.8% Before 2027 | YES | 16.5% | — | $25 | — | Jul 10: YES 17% (entry 16.5) — thesis accelerating: the 10Y TOUCHED ~4.60 Wednesday (7-week high), closing 4.551 Thursday. The required move shrank from 32bp to ~20-25bp a day after entry, yet the market barely repriced. FV 32 → 38. Correlation cap keeps size at $25. |
Closed Positions10
| Market | Side | Entry YES | Exit YES | Stake | P&L | Outcome | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Hike at July 29 Meeting | YES | 14.6% | 24.5% | $25 | +$16.95 | Correct | Exited Jul 8 pre-minutes at 24.5c: +68% in 22 hours. The thesis was convergence to FedWatch (~26%), not a view on the decision — converged, so out. Fastest win of the book. |
| Strait of Hormuz Normal by Jul 31 | YES | 55% | 14.5% | $75 | -$55.23 | Incorrect | Exit trigger fired Jul 6: <20c before the Jul 19 checkpoint without confirmed transit recovery. IRGC corridor warnings + 8 weekend U-turns broke the 60-calls/day ramp thesis. First loss of the book. Sized at 7.5% of budget for exactly this scenario. |
| Fed Rate < 3.0% before 2027 | NO | 16% | 5.5% | $125 | +$15.62 | Correct | Early profit-take Jul 6 at 5.5c. The <3.0% path was dead (Fed at 3.50-3.75% with a hike bias). Same capital-efficiency logic as the pos-001 exit. |
| US Unemployment 2026 >= 6.0% | NO | 18% | 6.5% | $100 | +$14.02 | Correct | Early profit-take Jul 6 at 6.5c. Edge exhausted — remaining ~$8 over six months wasn't worth $114 of tied capital. Recycled into the zero-cuts add. |
| Inflation 2026 > 4.5% | NO | 82% | 42% | $125 | +$277.78 | Correct | Early exit Jun 23 at ~42% YES (held NO). Iran MOU + WTI falling to $73 from $92 removes the path to 4.5%+ CPI in any remaining month. May peaked at 4.2% — the high water mark. Energy deflation now dominant. Extracted ~40pp from 82% YES entry. +$277.78 realized (+222% on stake). |
| US Recession 2026 | NO | 28% | 10% | $200 | +$50.00 | Correct | Exited Jun 22 at 10% YES (held NO). Hit stated exit target. FV ~8% — 2pp gap remaining not worth PCE Jun 25 two-way risk. Extracted ~18pp from 28% YES entry. |
| CPI May MoM = 0.6% | NO | 40% | 0% | $25 | +$16.67 | Correct | May CPI printed 0.5% MoM (below 0.6% threshold). Resolved NO on Jun 10. |
| CPI May YoY = 4.3% | NO | 40% | 0% | $150 | +$100.00 | Correct | May CPI printed 4.2% YoY (below 4.3% threshold). Resolved NO on Jun 10. |
| CPI May YoY >= 4.4% | NO | 38% | 0% | $150 | +$91.94 | Correct | May CPI printed 4.2% YoY (below 4.4% threshold). Resolved NO on Jun 10. |
| May Unemployment Rate = 4.3% | YES | 34% | 100% | $25 | +$48.53 | Correct | BLS confirmed May U/E = 4.3% on Jun 5 NFP report. Resolved YES. |
Cumulative P&L over time — $ (realized; live unrealized loads in browser)