Daily Macro US
NFP May
+172K
vs 85-105K consensus — major beat
Unemployment
4.3%
Unchanged — 11th month in range
April revision
+64K
115K → 179K — much stronger
Wages YoY
3.4%
Contained — not inflationary
May CPI
June 10
5 days — Cleveland 3.3-3.5%
WTI Oil
~$92
Stable — Iran ceasefire holds
NFP May 2026: +172,000 — a major beat against the 85-105K consensus. Unemployment unchanged at 4.3%. April revised up +64,000 (115K → 179K) and March revised up +29,000. Combined revisions of +93K mean the labor market was materially stronger than reported. This is the single most important data point for our unemployment and recession positions. The structural read is unambiguous: an economy adding 172K jobs per month with unemployment anchored at 4.3% is not on a path to 5%+ unemployment. The SPF forecast cap at 4.5% looks increasingly conservative — the labor market is running hotter than feared during the Iran escalation panic of June 3. Wages +0.3% MoM / +3.4% YoY are contained: not inflationary enough to add to the annual CPI trajectory. May CPI is now 5 days away (June 10). The Cleveland nowcast at 3.3-3.5% remains locked in — May data closed before the Iran escalation, and today's NFP does not enter the May measurement window. The three CPI positions (pos-006, pos-007, pos-008) are completely unaffected by today's report and resolve in 5 days. Correction to prior posts: the ECB meeting is June 11, not June 5 as incorrectly stated. The Polymarket ECB market was already at 97% YES — no position held. The BoJ meeting June 16-17 remains the key global rates event.
Today's Market Moves
Inflation 2026 > 4.5%
66%→62%-4pp
Down 4pp post-NFP. Strong wages (3.4% YoY) are contained. Annual average math unchanged — still requires 5.1%+ for H2. Fair value 28%. Gap widens to 34pp.
US Unemployment >= 5.0%
34%→32%-2pp
Holding at 32% despite blowout NFP. Market still pricing elevated risk. Our fair value revised down to 15% — gap now 17pp. Strong print.
US Unemployment >= 6.0%
15%→15%0pp
Unchanged. 172K jobs/month + 4.3% U/E makes 6%+ essentially impossible without a major shock. Fair value 7%.
CPI May MoM = 0.6%
16%→16%0pp
Unchanged — NFP irrelevant to May data. Cleveland nowcast 0.2-0.3%. June 10 in 5 days.
CPI May YoY >= 4.4%
13%→6%-7pp
Collapsed further. Cleveland nowcast 3.3-3.5% makes 4.4%+ impossible. June 10 in 5 days.
Screening Table
| # | Market | Expiry | Market Price | Fair Value | Gap (pp) | Direction | Volume | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inflation 2026 > 4.5% | Dec 2026 | 62% | 28% | -34pp | SELL YES | $1M+ | 8/10 |
| 2 | CPI May YoY = 4.3% | Jun 2026 | 36% | 4% | -32pp | SELL YES | $164K | 9/10 |
| 3 | CPI May MoM = 0.6% | Jun 2026 | 16% | 4% | -12pp | SELL YES | $17K | 9/10 |
| 4 | US Unemployment >= 5.0% | Dec 2026 | 32% | 15% | -17pp | SELL YES | $450K | 9/10 |
| 5 | US Unemployment >= 6.0% | Dec 2026 | 15% | 7% | -8pp | NEUTRAL | $1M | 9/10 |
| 6 | US Recession 2026 | Dec 2026 | 22% | 12% | -10pp | NEUTRAL | $890K | 8/10 |
| 7 | Fed Rate < 3.0% before 2027 | Dec 2026 | 11% | 5% | -6pp | NEUTRAL | $1M | 9/10 |
| 8 | CPI May YoY >= 4.4% | Jun 2026 | 6% | 3% | -3pp | NEUTRAL | $164K | 9/10 |
| 9 | CPI May YoY = 4.2% | Jun 2026 | 47% | 3% | -44pp | SELL YES | $164K | 9/10 |
| 10 | Fed Hold June FOMC | Jun 2026 | 97% | 99% | +2pp | NEUTRAL | $5M | 9/10 |
Market vs Fundamentals
Market Price (red) vs Estimated Fair Value (green) — %
Top 5 Opportunities
1
Inflation 2026 > 4.5% — NO
↓ SELL YES-34pp
Market price
62%
Fair value
28%
Gap: -34pp
Today's NFP (+172K, U/E 4.3%, wages +3.4% YoY) is the most important data point since entry. The market fell 4pp to 62% post-NFP. Wages growing at 3.4% YoY are contained — not adding inflationary pressure above 4.5% threshold. The annual average math is unchanged: Jan-May CPI averaged approximately 3.6-3.8% (April 3.8%), and June-December would need to average 5.1%+ to push the annual average above 4.5%. That requires sustained $110+ oil for 7 months — not our base case at WTI $92. The ceasefire framework is technically intact. ECB meeting is June 11 (correction from prior posts — not June 5). May CPI June 10 in 5 days will be the decisive data point. Gap at 34pp is the widest actionable mispricing in the portfolio.
▵ Bull case
- Iran conflict unresolved — drones on Kuwait airport this week
- WTI $92 still elevated vs H1 2025 levels — energy CPI component remains above baseline
- ECB hike June 11 signals global inflation environment still elevated
- Annual average could surprise if June-July CPI prints come in strong
▿ Bear case
- Annual average math: even with May at 3.3-3.5% and June at 4.0%, full-year average stays well below 4.5%
- Wages +3.4% YoY — contained, not adding to demand-pull inflation
- NFP +172K with U/E 4.3%: strong labor market without wage acceleration = growth without inflation
- Cleveland nowcast 3.3-3.5% for May: disinflation confirmed for the most recent closed month
2
CPI May YoY = 4.3% — NO
↓ SELL YES-32pp
Market price
36%
Fair value
4%
Gap: -32pp
5 days to resolution. Cleveland nowcast 3.3-3.5%. A 4.3% print requires 0.8-1.0pp above the nowcast — a 5+ standard deviation miss. Today's NFP is irrelevant: May data is locked. The market at 36% is pricing a 4.3% exact match as more likely than not conditional on the range 4.0-4.4%. At our fair value of 4%, this is an 8× overpricing. Entry was 40% YES — moved 4pp in our favour. June 10 resolves this position.
▵ Bull case
- Tariff pass-through to goods could have added unexpected tenths to May CPI
- Core services persistence — running above 3% annualised
▿ Bear case
- Cleveland nowcast 3.3-3.5%: 4.3% requires a 0.8-1.0pp deviation from professional forecasting consensus
- May measurement period closed May 31: no June event (NFP, Iran, ECB) enters the data
- WTI averaged $87-89 in final week of May — energy deflated the monthly print
- 5 days to resolution — maximum certainty window
3
US Unemployment >= 5.0% — NO
↓ SELL YES-17pp
Market price
32%
Fair value
15%
Gap: -17pp
Today's NFP is the most directly positive data point for this position since entry. +172K jobs added. Unemployment unchanged at 4.3% for the 11th consecutive month in range. April revised up +64K. The economy is adding jobs at a rate incompatible with 5%+ unemployment unless there is a sudden catastrophic shock. SPF cap at 4.5%: even the most pessimistic professional forecasters don't see 5%+ as the base case. Q2 GDPNow likely revises higher today. We revise fair value down to 15% (from 20%) given the blowout print. Gap widens from 12pp to 17pp. Conviction upgraded to 9.
▵ Bull case
- Iran conflict creates hiring-freeze risk in exposed sectors
- AI displacement could accelerate faster than models assume in white-collar roles
- Long-term unemployed rising: +524K over the year — structural deterioration
▿ Bear case
- NFP +172K: economy adding jobs at this rate cannot reach 5% unemployment without a major shock
- U/E 4.3% unchanged for 11 months: structural floor is clearly well below 5%
- April revised +64K: prior weakness was overstated — labor market stronger than feared
- Q2 GDPNow likely revises higher: growth and employment are reinforcing each other
4
CPI May MoM = 0.6% — NO
↓ SELL YES-12pp
Market price
16%
Fair value
4%
Gap: -12pp
5 days to resolution. NFP irrelevant — May data is locked. Cleveland nowcast 0.2-0.3% MoM. At 16% YES, the market is pricing a 0.6% print at 4× our fair value. The highest-certainty position in the portfolio alongside the CPI YoY positions. Resolution June 10.
▵ Bull case
- WTI averaged above $105 in first 3 weeks of May: energy component elevated in the monthly print
- Core services persistence could add unexpected tenths
▿ Bear case
- May data is closed: all June developments irrelevant
- WTI final week $87-88: energy deflated the MoM average
- Cleveland nowcast 0.2-0.3%: 0.6% is a 5-sigma miss
- 5 days to resolution
5
CPI May YoY >= 4.4% — NO
↓ SELL YES-3pp
Market price
6%
Fair value
3%
Gap: -3pp
Entry 38% YES, current 6% — a 32pp move in our favour. The market has nearly fully corrected. At 6% vs fair value 3%, the gap is now only 3pp — below our 8-10pp minimum threshold. This is essentially a hold-to-resolution position. June 10 in 5 days. Maximum conviction.
▵ Bull case
- Energy tail: if oil had spiked in late May above $115, could have added tenths
▿ Bear case
- Entry 38%, now 6%: market has already corrected 32pp in our favour
- Cleveland nowcast 3.3-3.5%: 4.4%+ requires impossible energy reversal for a closed period
- Below minimum actionable gap — hold to resolution