Daily Macro US

Jul 2, 2026·US Macro Polymarket·5 markets screened

NFP June

~110K

In-line; ADP +98K pre-signal. 150K deploy trigger NOT cleared → HOLD pos-010

S&P 500 (Jul 1 close)

~7,433

-0.22% — chip stocks crushed: MU -10.6%, AMD -6.9%, INTC -9%, AMAT -10%

WTI Crude

$67.44

-0.77% — dips below $68 on US-Iran peace progress; pre-war level restored

Gold

$4,074

+1.09% — soft NFP → dollar weakness → gold bid; July hike odds receding

10Y Treasury

~4.42%

Softening post-NFP — Fed July hike probability falling from 34% toward ~25%

Fed Hike 2026 (pos-010)

~50%

-3pp on soft NFP; gap to FV widens to 18pp — CPI July 14 is the next deploy gate

NFP June: ~110K, in-line with consensus (~110K; ADP pre-signaled +98K). After three consecutive blowout months (Mar +178K, Apr +115K, May +172K), June confirms the labor market is cooling but not cracking — the initial tariff-shock rebound has plateaued. The 150K deploy threshold for pos-010 was NOT cleared. No new capital deployed today. Next deploy gate: CPI June on July 14. Markets closed tomorrow (July 3, Independence Day). The bigger story today: oil has fully erased its war premium. Brent slid 40% from the March $120 peak to ~$70.61 (WTI: $67.44, below $68 intraday), returning to its pre-conflict support base. The catalyst: US-Iran peace talks reportedly progressing this morning, with WTI dipping below $68 on that headline. This is a direct structural headwind for pos-012 (Hormuz YES Jul 31) — oil markets are pricing Hormuz as effectively normalized. Yet Polymarket sits at ~29%, skeptical the formal IMF Portwatch 60/day transit-call threshold will be hit by July 31. Key distinction: the resolution bar is ship COUNT, not barrels. VLCCs carry more oil per vessel, so barrels can normalize before ship counts cross 60/day. July 19 MOU compliance checkpoint remains the binary. NFP market reaction: gold +1.1% ($4,074), NAS100 -0.2%, USD/JPY -0.5% (161.82), EUR/USD +0.2% (1.1395) — dollar softened on in-line print. Fed July hike probability falls from ~34% toward ~25%. White House adviser Hassett had hinted 'another strong number' pre-release — 110K is strong vs the early-year lows but not a blowout. Warsh remains hawkish; the window for a hike stays open with PCE at 4.0% and services CPI sticky. CPI July 14 is now the next critical gate.

Today's Market Moves

Fed Rate Hike 2026 (pos-010)

53%→50%-3pp

SLIGHT PULLBACK to ~50% on in-line NFP. The 150K deploy threshold was not hit — position stays at $200 YES (363.6 shares at 55c). Gap to FV widens to 18pp (FV: 68%). The Fed July hike probability falls from 34% to ~25% on 110K print — Warsh is data-dependent and this is 'slowing but not cracking.' Sep timing 35%, Oct 40%. NEXT DEPLOY GATE: CPI June July 14. If MoM ≥0.4% or YoY ≥4.0%, deploy $100-125 immediately. The 18pp gap has never been wider in this position — patience is the play. MTM today: 363.6 shares × $0.50 = $181.8 vs $200 cost = -$18.2.

Strait of Hormuz Jul 31 (pos-012)

31%→29%-2pp

DECLINING to ~29%. Oil markets have fully priced Hormuz normalization — Brent -40% from peak, WTI at $67.44. US-Iran peace talks progressing today (WTI dipped below $68 on the headline). HOLD through July 19 MOU checkpoint. If a formal peace declaration emerges before Jul 19, position snaps to 40-50%. If talks stall again, consider exit below 25c before Jul 31. MTM: 136.36 shares × $0.29 = $39.5 vs $75 cost = -$35.5.

Zero Fed Cuts 2026 (pos-013)

91%→91%0pp

FLAT at 91c. NFP ~110K is not soft enough to reopen cut discussion. PCE 4.0%, services sticky, Warsh hawkish. HOLD YES.

Fed Rate End 2026 = 4.0% (pos-011)

26%→26%0pp

FLAT at 26c. In-line NFP keeps hike scenario alive but CPI July 14 is the next catalyst. HOLD YES.

Screening Table

# ↑	Market ↕	Expiry ↕	Market Price ↕	Fair Value ↕	Gap (pp) ↕	Direction ↕	Volume ↕	Confidence ↕
1	Fed Rate Hike 2026	Dec 2026	50%	68%	+18pp	HOLD YES — deploy $100-125 at CPI June (Jul 14) if MoM ≥0.4%	$$3.0M	8/10
2	BoJ Sep 2026 Hike	Sep 2026	53%	65%	+12pp	APPROACHING ENTRY — BoJ Jul 15 meeting + Japan CPI Jul 22 are the gates	$TBD	7/10
3	Strait of Hormuz Jul 31	Jul 31	29%	40%	+11pp	HOLD YES — Jul 19 MOU checkpoint binary; FV declining as oil normalizes	$$10.5M	4/10
4	Zero Fed Cuts 2026	Dec 31	91%	96%	+5pp	HOLD YES	$$34M	9/10
5	Fed Funds Rate End 2026 = 4.0%	Dec 31	26%	32%	+6pp	HOLD YES	$$8.2M	7/10

Market vs Fundamentals

Market Price (red) vs Estimated Fair Value (green) — %

Top 5 Opportunities

Fed Rate Hike 2026 — YES

Confidence ★★★★☆ 8/10

↑ BUY YES+18pp

Market price

50%

Fair value

68%

Gap: +18pp

NFP June ~110K in-line — 18pp gap is the widest yet. Deploy $100-125 into existing YES position at CPI July 14 if MoM ≥0.4%. PCE 4.0%, Warsh hawkish, hike probability still 35-40% for Sep-Oct window.

BoJ Sep 2026 Hike — YES

Confidence ★★★★☆ 7/10

↑ BUY YES+12pp

Market price

53%

Fair value

65%

Gap: +12pp

USD/JPY -0.46% today (161.82) on dollar softness. BoJ board member Nagahama signaled rate hike expected by year-end. Tankan +22 confirmed macro foundation. Entry window: Jul 22-25 post-BoJ meeting and Japan CPI.

Strait of Hormuz Jul 31 — YES

Confidence ★★☆☆☆ 4/10

↑ BUY YES+11pp

Market price

29%

Fair value

40%

Gap: +11pp

Existing pos-012 at 29c. Oil at pre-war levels structurally bearish but US-Iran peace talks progressing. Jul 19 MOU checkpoint is the binary — formal declaration would snap this to 40-50%. High-risk HOLD only.

Zero Fed Cuts 2026 — YES

Confidence ★★★★☆ 9/10

↑ BUY YES+5pp

Market price

91%

Fair value

96%

Gap: +5pp

NFP confirms labor not cracking. PCE 4.0% bars any cut. 91c is near fair value — hold existing YES.

Fed Funds Rate End 2026 = 4.0% — YES

Confidence ★★★★☆ 7/10

↑ BUY YES+6pp

Market price

26%

Fair value

32%

Gap: +6pp

3.50-3.75% current. One hike to 4.0% end-2026 still alive. NFP in-line keeps Sep-Oct window open. HOLD.