Daily Macro US
Cleveland CPI Nowcast (June)
3.92%
→ 3.9% bracket priced at just 15c on Polymarket — entered $75 YES (pos-014)
Core CPI (nowcast)
2.85%
CORRECTION: prior posts' '4.2% core' was headline. Zero-cuts FV 88 → 85
10Y Treasury
~4.48%
+10bp Monday on hawkish Warsh echo; FedWatch ~56% hike by September
USD/JPY
162.83
Fresh 40-year yen low; Bessent urges faster BoJ hikes, floats joint intervention
Fed July Hike Market
14.6%
10.4 → 14.6 overnight — market closed most of our FedWatch gap; entered $25 (pos-015)
Hormuz Jul-31 (exited)
7.5%
Halved again since Monday's 14.5c exit — rule saved ~$10 more
Three new positions today — led by the widest gap we've ever published. The Cleveland Fed's inflation nowcast (updated Jul 6) puts June CPI at 3.92% YoY, squarely in the 3.9% bracket — yet Polymarket's June Inflation market prices 3.9% at just 15c while crowding 3.8% at 51c. Cleveland's model has historically beaten Blue Chip consensus and the Philadelphia Fed SPF on CPI nowcasts; eight days before the release, with most of the month's oil and gasoline inputs already in the model, a 30pp gap between the nowcast bracket and its market price is the cleanest mispricing this site has documented. We entered $75 YES at 15c (pos-014, conf 7 — bracket markets are unforgiving, so this is half-Kelly not full). Second correction in a week, logged in the same spirit as the NFP fix: earlier posts described core CPI at '4.2%' — that figure was HEADLINE May CPI. Core is running ~2.85% per Cleveland (June nowcast), which reframes the zero-cuts thesis: the no-cut case rests on the Fed's demonstrated hike-lean (FedWatch: ~56% probability of a hike by September, per Monday's Schwab market update), not on a fictional 200bp core overshoot. pos-013 FV trimmed 88 → 85; hold, no adds. Monday's session backed the hawks: chips rebounded and lifted indexes, the 10Y jumped 10bp to ~4.48% on Warsh's hawkish Wednesday commentary still echoing, and Fed-hike-by-September pricing sits at 56% (from 61% a week earlier). Our Friday candidate — the July FOMC decision market — moved without us: 10.4c Friday to 14.6c this morning as the market closed most of the FedWatch gap. We entered at reduced size ($25 at 14.6c, pos-015) since the residual edge (~+7pp vs FedWatch's Jul 4 reading of ~22-24%) is below the full-size bar. Third entry: China Q2 GDP (release ~Jul 15) — the 4.6-4.9% bracket cheapened to 72.5c against the well-documented tendency of official prints to land target-adjacent; $25 at conf 5 (pos-016). Hormuz postscript: the market we exited Monday at 14.5c now trades 7.5c — the exit rule saved another ~$10. And the yen broke to a fresh 40-year low at 162.83 this morning with Treasury Secretary Bessent openly urging faster BoJ hikes — the BoJ Sep market's collapse to 6c on ~$630 of volume looks like thin-book noise against a strengthening setup; our entry gate remains BoJ July 15. Everything converges on the 14th: CPI resolves pos-014, gates pos-010/011/013/015, and China GDP + BoJ follow within 24 hours.
Today's Market Moves
June CPI YoY = 3.9% (pos-014 — NEW)
15%→15%0pp
ENTERED $75 YES at 15c. Cleveland nowcast 3.92% vs a market crowding 3.8% (51c). The model's YoY nowcasts eight days pre-release are historically tight; the main risk is boundary rounding (a 3.84 print resolves 3.8). FV ~45 → +30pp, the widest documented gap in our archive. Resolution: BLS CPI, Jul 14, 8:30 ET — six-day holding period.
Fed Hike at July Meeting (pos-015 — NEW)
10.4%→14.6%+4pp
ENTERED $25 YES at 14.6c — half the size Friday's plan contemplated, because the market closed 40% of the gap overnight. FedWatch July ~22-24% (Jul 4) vs 14.6c leaves ~+7pp. If CPI prints 3.9 headline with core at 2.85, July stays a long shot — this is deliberately small.
Zero Fed Cuts 2026 (pos-013)
79%→79%0pp
FLAT at 79c, +$1.5 on the add. Thesis reframed with the core correction: the no-cut case is about a hike-leaning Fed (56% by September per FedWatch), not core-at-4.2 (it isn't — it's 2.85). FV 88 → 85. Hold; exit below 72c.
Fed Rate Hike 2026 (pos-010)
48.5%→48.5%0pp
48.5c, third consecutive firm day. FV 56 intact — FedWatch's 56%-by-September actually sits ABOVE our FV now. Caveat logged: with the headline CPI nowcast at -0.06% MoM, the ≥0.4% deploy trigger for Jul 14 is unlikely to fire; the realistic branches are hold-and-reassess or exit discipline.
Screening Table
| # | Market | Expiry | Market Price | Fair Value | Gap (pp) | Direction | Volume | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | June CPI YoY = 3.9% | Jul 14 | 15% | 45% | +30pp | ENTERED $75 YES — Cleveland nowcast 3.92 vs market crowding 3.8 | $$656K | 7/10 |
| 2 | BoJ 25bp Hike at Sep Meeting | Sep 2026 | 6% | 25% | +19pp | GATED — 6c on $630 volume is noise; enter up to $25 only if BoJ Jul 15 keeps the bias | $Minimal | 5/10 |
| 3 | China GDP Q2 = 4.6-4.9% | ~Jul 15 | 72.5% | 85% | +13pp | ENTERED $25 YES — official-print regularity, low info edge | $$144K | 5/10 |
| 4 | Fed Hike at July Meeting | Jul 29 | 14.6% | 22% | +7pp | ENTERED $25 YES (reduced) — gap 40% closed overnight | $$392K/day | 6/10 |
| 5 | Fed Rate Hike 2026 | Dec 2026 | 48.5% | 56% | +8pp | HOLD YES — CPI Jul 14 branches: hold vs exit discipline | $$14.5K/day | 6/10 |
| 6 | Zero Fed Cuts 2026 | Dec 31 | 79% | 85% | +6pp | HOLD YES — thesis reframed post core-correction; no adds | $$24.5K/day | 7/10 |
| 7 | 10Y Touches 4.8% Before 2027 | Dec 31 | 13% | 30% | +17pp | RESEARCH — resolution mechanics unverified; 10Y at 4.48 and rising makes 13c look cheap | $$245K | 4/10 |
Market vs Fundamentals
Market Price (red) vs Estimated Fair Value (green) — %
Top 5 Opportunities
1
June CPI YoY = 3.9% — YES
↑ BUY YES+30pp
Market price
15%
Fair value
45%
Gap: +30pp
The purest expression of this site's method: an official-data nowcast against a market consensus anchored elsewhere. Cleveland says 3.92; the crowd says 3.8. Eight days out, the model already holds most of June's oil and gasoline inputs — the war-crash base effects that drag headline from 4.2 toward 3.9 are mechanical, and Cleveland historically outperforms the exact consensus this market is crowding around. At 15c the market pays 5.7:1 on the nowcast simply being its usual self.
▵ Bull case
- Nowcast 3.92 sits in-bracket with historical YoY errors at this horizon well inside ±0.1
- Cleveland beats Blue Chip and SPF on CPI — the 3.8 crowd IS that consensus
- Energy base effects are arithmetic, not judgment: Brent -40% from March peak flows straight into the YoY print
▿ Bear case
- Boundary risk: 3.849 rounds to 3.8 and the position zeroes — this is why sizing is half-Kelly
- One week of gasoline data remains outside the model
- NSA vs SA rounding subtleties in bracket resolution — read the fine print twice (we did: resolves on BLS headline YoY)
2
BoJ 25bp Hike at September Meeting — YES
↑ BUY YES+19pp
Market price
6%
Fair value
25%
Gap: +19pp
The setup strengthened again — yen at a fresh 40-year low (162.83), Bessent publicly urging faster BoJ hikes and floating coordinated intervention — while the market halved to 6c on virtually no volume. A 19pp paper gap that cannot absorb $25 without moving is a gap in theory; the July 15 meeting converts it into a tradeable one or kills it. No entry today, on discipline not conviction.
▵ Bull case
- US Treasury pressure is new and public — Bessent explicitly wants BoJ hikes
- $73B of intervention (Apr-May) failed; the rate differential is the only lever left
- 6c pays 16:1 if September delivers
▿ Bear case
- $630 of daily volume — the 6c print is one seller, not a consensus
- BoJ policy rate at 0.75% after gradual normalization; skipping to September assumes urgency the BoJ has never shown
- Post-gate the price may gap to 15-20c instantly, eating the edge
3
China GDP Q2 = 4.6-4.9% — YES
↑ BUY YES+13pp
Market price
72.5%
Fair value
85%
Gap: +13pp
A base-rate trade: official Chinese GDP prints cluster around the policy path with famous regularity, and the modal bracket cheapened 79 → 72.5 without news. We hold no private view on China's economy — the edge is entirely in the print's institutional behavior. $25, strictly.
▵ Bull case
- Official prints rarely surprise the modal bracket
- Entry improved 6.5pp overnight on no information
▿ Bear case
- We lack a verified Q2 consensus — this is a prior, not an analysis
- Tail risk: a deliberate sub-4.5 print to justify stimulus would zero the bracket
4
Fed Hike at July 29 Meeting — YES
↑ BUY YES+7pp
Market price
14.6%
Fair value
22%
Gap: +7pp
Friday's +12pp gap paid everyone but us — the market repriced 10.4 → 14.6 overnight, tracking the same FedWatch signal we flagged. The residual +7pp is still positive expectancy on the deepest macro book on the platform, but it's a half-conviction trade now: $25, not $50. A 3.9 CPI headline with 2.85 core probably isn't enough for July — this pays off mainly in the world where CPI surprises hot.
▵ Bull case
- FedWatch July ~22-24% vs 14.6c market
- Deepest liquidity on the board — zero slippage at our size
- 22-day resolution: fast capital recycling
▿ Bear case
- The easy 4pp was captured overnight by others — chasing
- Core at 2.85 makes a July hike hard to justify even with a hot headline
- Correlated with pos-010/011/013 — Fed-side concentration now ~$332
5
10Y Treasury Touches 4.8% Before 2027 — YES
↑ BUY YES+17pp
Market price
13%
Fair value
30%
Gap: +17pp
Research flag, not an entry. The 10Y sits at 4.48 after a +10bp hawkish Monday; a 32bp touch inside six months — through a possible September hike — priced at 13% looks structurally cheap. But 'touch' markets live and die on resolution mechanics (which print? intraday or close? which source?), and we haven't verified them. On the desk for tomorrow.
▵ Bull case
- Hike path + heavy H2 Treasury issuance both push long yields
- 10Y was at 4.49 five days ago — the distance is small
▿ Bear case
- Resolution mechanics unverified — never trade a market whose rulebook you haven't read
- A soft CPI collapses yields and the thesis together