Daily Macro US
Tuesday Double Catalyst
CPI + Warsh
June CPI 8:30 ET + Chair testimony to Congress same day — biggest session of the book's life
Fed Hike 2026 (pos-010)
61.5%
+9pp weekend surge on $127K volume — one tick below the 62c trim line
June CPI Market (pos-014)
22c
15 → 22c since entry (+$35 MTM); crowd settled 3.8/3.7/3.9 — model frozen at 3.92
10Y Touch 4.8% (pos-017)
19c
Hike narrative is the tailwind — hot CPI could print the touch within days
WTI June Decline
-20.4%
The mechanical input under every June CPI estimate (Kiplinger) — Tuesday answers where it rounds
Unrealized P&L
+$73.67
Best book of the run; 5 of 7 positions green into the gauntlet
Sunday-evening brief ahead of the biggest 48 hours in this book's history. The weekend did not stay quiet: the Fed Rate Hike 2026 market surged from 52.5c to 61.5c on $127K of weekend volume — the 'hike odds rising' narrative (Yahoo Finance) building into a Tuesday that now carries a DOUBLE catalyst: June CPI at 8:30 ET and Chair Warsh testifying before Congress the same day. The surge does two things to our book. First, pos-010 (+$24 MTM) sits ONE TICK below the 62c trim line we published Wednesday — a hot print Tuesday likely triggers a half-trim into strength, banking the two-month thesis at last. Second, it kills Friday's deploy gate before it could fire: the $100 add required the market at or below 52c, and the market ran 9 points away over a weekend. We do not chase; the reserve stays reserved. The flagship keeps converging: pos-014 (June CPI = 3.9%) closed the weekend at 22c against a 15c entry, +$35 on paper, with the crowd's final shape settled at 3.8 (47.4c) / 3.7 (28.2c) / 3.9 (22c) and Cleveland's nowcast frozen at 3.92% since Monday — the model doesn't update on weekends, and June's inputs were complete anyway. WTI's 20.4% June decline (Kiplinger) is the mechanical story under everyone's estimate; the question Tuesday answers is only where the arithmetic rounds. The rest of the book: pos-017 (10Y touch 4.80) firmed to 19c with the hike narrative as tailwind — a hot CPI could print the touch within days; pos-013 held 78.4c; China GDP stabilized at 68.5c into Wednesday's NBS print; and the BoJ September market chopped back to 7.5c on $3K of volume, still untradeable, still gated on Wednesday's statement. Tuesday's decision tree, pre-committed: CPI prints 3.9 → pos-014 pays ~$440, hold pos-010 unless >62c (trim half); prints 3.8 or below → pos-014 zeroes (-$75, sized for it), pos-010 floor discipline at 48c, pos-013 exit watch below 72c; prints 4.0+ → pos-014 zeroes but the hike complex (010/011/013/017) likely pays enough to cover. Every branch was written down before the number exists — that's the entire point of this site. Book: +$73.67 unrealized, +$576.28 realized, 9/10.
Today's Market Moves
Fed Rate Hike 2026 (pos-010)
52.5%→61.5%+9pp
The weekend surge closed Friday's re-widened gap from the other side — toward futures, as it has every time this cycle. Consequences: the ≤52c deploy gate is dead (no chase), and the 62c trim line is one tick away. Tuesday: hot print + >62c → trim half ($100 of stake), banking the thesis while keeping the Sep/Oct tail.
June CPI Annual (pos-014)
20%→22%+2pp
Final pre-print shape: the crowd pays 47.4c for 3.8, 28.2c for 3.7, 22c for ours. Cleveland's last word was 3.92. Forty hours to the referee. Pre-committed branches published in today's context — no decisions left to make in the moment.
BoJ 25bp Hike at Sep Meeting
10%→7.5%-3pp
Chopped back on $3K volume — the thin book breathing, not information. Gate Wednesday.
10Y Touches 4.8% (pos-017)
17%→19%+2pp
+$3.8 MTM in three days. The weekend hike-repricing is exactly the path that resolves this early.
Screening Table
| # | Market | Expiry | Market Price | Fair Value | Gap (pp) | Direction | Volume | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | June CPI YoY = 3.9% | Jul 14 | 22% | 45% | +23pp | HOLD $75 YES — resolves Tuesday 8:30 ET; branches pre-committed | $$656K | 7/10 |
| 2 | Fed Rate Hike 2026 | Dec 2026 | 61.5% | 63% | +2pp | HOLD YES — trim half if >62c on a hot print; floor 48c on soft | $$127K/day | 7/10 |
| 3 | 10Y Touches 4.8% Before 2027 | Dec 31 | 19% | 38% | +19pp | HOLD $25 YES — hot CPI could print the touch this week | $$245K | 6/10 |
| 4 | China GDP Q2 = 4.6-4.9% | Wed | 68.5% | 85% | +16pp | HOLD $25 YES — NBS print Wednesday | $$144K | 5/10 |
| 5 | BoJ 25bp Hike at Sep Meeting | Sep 2026 | 7.5% | 25% | +17pp | GATED — statement Wednesday; max $25 | $$3K/day | 5/10 |
| 6 | Zero Fed Cuts 2026 | Dec 31 | 78.4% | 85% | +7pp | HOLD YES — exit watch below 72c only on a shock-soft print | $$4K/day | 7/10 |
Market vs Fundamentals
Market Price (red) vs Estimated Fair Value (green) — %
Top 5 Opportunities
1
June CPI YoY = 3.9% — YES
↑ BUY YES+23pp
Market price
22%
Fair value
45%
Gap: +23pp
Forty hours out. The position is +$35 without a single data point having printed — pure convergence toward a model that hasn't blinked in five sessions. Tuesday morning either validates the entire editorial premise of this site at 5:1 odds, or hands us a $75 lesson we'll publish in full. Both outcomes are content; only one is money.
▵ Bull case
- Model frozen at 3.92 with complete June inputs
- Crowd's two failed theories (4.0-4.2, then 3.7) bracket ours without displacing it
- 22c still pays 4.5:1
▿ Bear case
- One hundredth of rounding decides it
- The 3.8 crowd at 47.4c includes the consensus forecasting community
- Warsh testimony same day adds unrelated volatility
2
Fed Rate Hike 2026 — YES
↑ BUY YES+2pp
Market price
61.5%
Fair value
63%
Gap: +2pp
From 17pp of gap at entry to 1.5pp today — the trade is nearly complete, seven weeks and one NFP-shock drawdown later. The remaining question is exit craftsmanship: a hot CPI above 62c triggers the published half-trim, converting a patient thesis into realized P&L while the Sep/Oct optionality rides free.
▵ Bull case
- Warsh testimony could push through 62 before CPI even prints
- Momentum + $127K weekend volume = real repricing
▿ Bear case
- 1.5pp of edge left — this is now inventory, not opportunity
- Soft CPI unwinds the weekend instantly
3
10Y Treasury Touches 4.8% Before 2027 — YES
↑ BUY YES+19pp
Market price
19%
Fair value
38%
Gap: +19pp
Quietly +15% in three days. Every element of the weekend — hike odds rising, Warsh on deck, CPI risk skewed hot in the narrative — is a path toward one 4.80 print. The market still pays 4:1 against something the 10Y nearly did on Wednesday.
▵ Bull case
- Touched 4.60 five days ago
- Hot-CPI branch prints the touch almost mechanically
▿ Bear case
- Soft CPI caps the path for weeks
- Correlation with the rest of the book
4
China GDP Q2 = 4.6-4.9% — YES
↑ BUY YES+16pp
Market price
68.5%
Fair value
85%
Gap: +16pp
Friday's unexplained drift stopped drifting. Wednesday's NBS print grades a thesis that never pretended to be more than a base rate. Original size, original humility.
▵ Bull case
- Regularity
- Drift stabilized
▿ Bear case
- Friday's seller may still know something
- Blind on consensus
5
BoJ 25bp Hike at September Meeting — YES
↑ BUY YES+17pp
Market price
7.5%
Fair value
25%
Gap: +17pp
The thin book gave back its week of drift in a weekend, which is what $3K books do. Nothing has changed upstream: yen at extremes, statement Wednesday. The gate has cost nothing and protected everything.
▵ Bull case
- 7.5c pays 13:1 post-gate if the bias holds
- Macro vectors unchanged
▿ Bear case
- Binary statement
- Book can't absorb conviction