Daily Macro US
T-minus 24h
CPI Tue 8:30 ET
Flagship resolves; Warsh testifies same day; all branches pre-committed Sunday
June CPI Market (pos-014)
22.5c
+$37.5 MTM; crowd final: 3.8 @ 49.7 / 3.7 @ 26.9 / ours @ 22.5. Cleveland's last word ~10am ET
Fed Hike 2026 (pos-010)
59%
Eased off the 62c trim line — rules stand for tomorrow
BoJ (Wednesday)
Rate 1.0%
Overnight: BoJ may RAISE FY26 growth forecast, inflation risks 'tilted upside' — gate case strengthens
China GDP (pos-016)
63c
Third leg down — 'fresh Iran escalation' Q2-impact narrative; print-regularity thesis rides Wednesday
Asia FX
USD bid
Yields rising in Asian hours; KRW >1,507, TWD pressured — hawkish-US tape
Eve of the gauntlet. Twenty-four hours from now the June CPI print will have graded the flagship position, and the quiet of this Monday is the quiet of a book that has already made all its decisions. The overnight tape leaned our way at the margins: the dollar firmed, Treasury yields rose in Asian hours, and Asian currencies broadly weakened — the hawkish-US backdrop that flatters four of our seven positions. pos-010 eased from Sunday's 61.5 to 59c, backing off the trim line without triggering it; the Tuesday rules published Sunday remain untouched. The flagship sits at 22.5c (entry 15c, +$37.50 on paper) with the crowd's final answer sheet reading 3.8 at 49.7c, 3.7 at 26.9c, ours at 22.5c — and Cleveland's Monday-morning nowcast, landing around 10am ET, gets the last word before the referee. Two developments on the Wednesday front. First, the BoJ gate strengthened overnight: wire reports say the Bank of Japan may RAISE its fiscal-2026 growth forecast this month while keeping its view that inflation risks are 'tilted to the upside' — language that, if it survives into Wednesday's statement, is precisely the tightening bias our gated entry requires. The policy rate stands at 1.0% (the highest since 1995) against a Fed at 3.50-3.75%: a 250-275bp gap that $73B of intervention couldn't paper over, with GPIF repatriation hopes the yen's only overnight friend. Second, the China bracket's mystery seller finally has a face: 'fresh Iran escalation' is the wires' framing for Q2-impact risk, and our 4.6-4.9% bracket took a third leg down to 63c (entry 72.5c). Worth saying clearly: our thesis was never that China's quarter was good — it was that the OFFICIAL print clusters at target regardless. If the NBS does Wednesday what the NBS does every quarter, the drift against us becomes the payout. If Beijing chooses this quarter to print honest pain and justify stimulus, we lose $25 and learn which regime we're in — worth the tuition. No trades today. Book: 7 open, $532 staked, +$68 unrealized, +$576.28 realized, 9/10. Tomorrow, 8:30 ET.
Today's Market Moves
June CPI Annual (pos-014)
22%→22.5%+1pp
Final crowd shape locked. One number tomorrow ends a two-week argument between a frozen model and a crowd that has now tried three different answers. We're long the model at 5:1 average odds.
China GDP Q2 (pos-016)
68.5%→63%-6pp
The seller's thesis surfaced: Iran-escalation Q2 impact. Ours is unchanged: NBS prints cluster at target through worse than this. 63c vs entry 72.5c; $25 rides. Wednesday tells us whether Beijing's statistical regime survived the war summer.
Fed Rate Hike 2026 (pos-010)
61.5%→59%-3pp
Backed off the trim line — the market wants to see the print first, same as everyone. Rules unchanged.
BoJ 25bp Hike at Sep Meeting
7.5%→7.5%0pp
Flat into the gate, but the overnight forecast-upgrade reports are the strongest pre-statement signal yet. Wednesday: bias kept → enter ≤$25; bias dropped → thesis retired at zero cost.
Screening Table
| # | Market | Expiry | Market Price | Fair Value | Gap (pp) | Direction | Volume | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | June CPI YoY = 3.9% | TOMORROW | 22.5% | 45% | +22pp | HOLD $75 YES — resolves 8:30 ET | $$656K | 7/10 |
| 2 | China GDP Q2 = 4.6-4.9% | Wed | 63% | 85% | +22pp | HOLD $25 YES — regime test Wednesday | $$144K | 5/10 |
| 3 | 10Y Touches 4.8% Before 2027 | Dec 31 | 19% | 38% | +19pp | HOLD $25 YES | $$245K | 6/10 |
| 4 | BoJ 25bp Hike at Sep Meeting | Sep 2026 | 7.5% | 25% | +17pp | GATED — Wednesday statement; overnight reports strengthen the case | $Minimal | 5/10 |
| 5 | Fed Rate Hike 2026 | Dec 2026 | 59% | 63% | +4pp | HOLD YES — trim >62c tomorrow on hot print | $$37K/day | 7/10 |
| 6 | Zero Fed Cuts 2026 | Dec 31 | 78.1% | 85% | +7pp | HOLD YES | $$4K/day | 7/10 |
Market vs Fundamentals
Market Price (red) vs Estimated Fair Value (green) — %
Top 5 Opportunities
1
June CPI YoY = 3.9% — YES
↑ BUY YES+22pp
Market price
22.5%
Fair value
45%
Gap: +22pp
Last words before the referee. The two-week history of this position is the site's thesis in miniature: entered against one crowd consensus, held through a second, watched a third form — all while the mechanical model repeated one number. Tomorrow at 8:30 ET the argument ends. Win or lose, the post-mortem publishes in full.
▵ Bull case
- Model at 3.92 through every crowd regime
- Average odds paid ~5:1 for holding the mode
- Crowd's 3.8 consensus is the same consensus Cleveland historically beats
▿ Bear case
- A hundredth of rounding is still a hundredth
- Cleveland's Monday update could theoretically blink at the wire
2
China GDP Q2 = 4.6-4.9% — YES
↑ BUY YES+22pp
Market price
63%
Fair value
85%
Gap: +22pp
The market now prices a real chance Beijing prints Q2 pain honestly — Iran escalation, trade disruption, the works. Our $25 says the statistical regime that smoothed through 2020, 2022, and this spring's war doesn't pick this Wednesday to find candor. Bureaucratic base rates are boring until they pay 60% in three days.
▵ Bull case
- NBS smoothing survived worse quarters than this
- 22pp of paper edge at the widest yet
▿ Bear case
- A stimulus campaign needs a bad print as its permission slip
- The seller has been right about direction three times running
3
BoJ 25bp Hike at September Meeting — YES
↑ BUY YES+17pp
Market price
7.5%
Fair value
25%
Gap: +17pp
The overnight reports — growth forecast upgrade under consideration, inflation risks 'tilted to the upside' — read like a draft of the exact statement language our gate requires. If Wednesday's text keeps that bias, we enter up to $25 into whatever the thin book allows; if it softens, two weeks of patience cost nothing.
▵ Bull case
- Forecast-upgrade reports are the strongest signal yet
- Rate gap 250-275bp with GPIF hopes the yen's only crutch
▿ Bear case
- Thin book may gap on the statement before we can fill
- Binary
4
Fed Rate Hike 2026 — YES
↑ BUY YES+4pp
Market price
59%
Fair value
63%
Gap: +4pp
Eased off the trim line as the market holds its breath with everyone else. Seven weeks in, +$14.5 on paper, rules written: above 62 on a hot print we bank half; below 48 ever, we're gone. Tomorrow is execution, not analysis.
▵ Bull case
- Warsh testimony is a second hawkish lottery ticket tomorrow
▿ Bear case
- 4pp of edge left — inventory, not opportunity
5
10Y Treasury Touches 4.8% Before 2027 — YES
↑ BUY YES+19pp
Market price
19%
Fair value
38%
Gap: +19pp
Yields rose again in Asian hours. The position needs one hot morning, and tomorrow offers two separate chances — the print and the testimony. Still 4:1 against something the 10Y nearly did last Wednesday.
▵ Bull case
- Two catalysts tomorrow
- Asia session already leaning our way
▿ Bear case
- Soft print hibernates it