Global Rates

The last quiet session before the busiest 30 hours in this book's history, and Asia spent it leaning into the dollar: regional currencies broadly weakened as Treasury yields rose in Asian hours, the won pushed past 1,507, and the Taiwan dollar stayed under foreign-selling pressure. The yen found its only overnight support in an unusual place — speculation that the GPIF, Japan's giant public pension fund, could repatriate capital into domestic assets. It needs the help: at a 1.0% policy rate against the Fed's 3.50-3.75%, the 250-275bp gap remains the gravitational field every intervention has failed to escape. The real overnight news for our book: wire reports that the BoJ may RAISE its fiscal-2026 growth forecast this month while holding the view that inflation risks are 'tilted to the upside.' That phrase is functionally the tightening bias our two-week-old gated entry requires — if it survives into Wednesday's statement, we enter; if it doesn't, the patience was free. China's Q2 GDP prints the same morning, and the market has spent four sessions selling our 4.6-4.9% bracket down to 63c on an Iran-escalation-impact narrative — a bet, in effect, that Beijing's statistical smoothing breaks precisely when a stimulus permission slip would be most useful. Our $25 says regimes don't change on schedule. And hovering over everything: US CPI tomorrow at 8:30 ET, where a mechanical model's five-day 3.92 and three successive crowd theories finally meet the only number that counts.