Daily Macro Global

Convergence day: Iran deal confirmed + BoJ hikes today + FOMC starts today. The single biggest macro event of H1 2026: US-Iran MOU signed on Sunday night. War ends, Strait of Hormuz reopens in 30 days, 60 days of nuclear talks, formal signing June 19 in Switzerland. The global response was immediate: Nikkei +5.5% to 69K all-time record, WTI crashed to $82 (three-month low), S&P futures +1.24%, bond yields falling on disinflation. Simultaneously: BoJ decision today (98% for +25bp to 1.0%) and FOMC starts today (decision June 17). Three of the biggest CB events of 2026 and the Iran deal all hitting the same window. BoJ hike creates policy divergence — Fed hold + BoJ hike = yen strengthening, Japanese exporters repricing. Post-BoJ, the Sep 2026 hike opportunity (65% market, FV 72%) becomes actionable.