Global Rates

A week that resolved almost everything, and taught the year's clearest lesson about presence versus discipline. Three central-bank set-pieces landed in 72 hours: the FOMC held 9-3 on July 29 with three members dissenting to HIKE (the most hawkish hold in years, markets now pricing two 2026 increases); the US Q2 GDP advance printed inside our 1.5-2.0% bracket on July 30, winning our position; and the BoJ held at 1% on July 31 but with real hawkish force — signaling September 'in play,' warning core inflation would run 'clearly above 2%,' amid suspected yen intervention. Global long ends reacted in unison: the US 10Y hit 4.75%, its highest since January 2025, dragging JGBs and bunds with it. For our book the Japan story is bittersweet: the September-hike thesis we published on July 7 at 6c came exactly true, the market repriced to 39.5c — and we captured none of it, because the statement that was our entry gate opened during a stretch with no daily coverage. Not a flaw in the rule; a flaw in being there. It is the strongest possible argument for the event-day scheduled runs we've flagged repeatedly: a rules-based book that isn't present when its gate opens is just a well-reasoned spectator. Elsewhere: the ECB held its September pricing near 16c even through the oil round-trip and a hot-ish euro flash CPI — still below our bar, still the most-watched August candidate. And the yen, post-intervention and post-hawkish-hold, is the cleanest expression left of the global tightening tilt — one we'll approach only through a proper gate, and only while actually watching it. Book: 5 open, $332 staked, +$132.64 unrealized (record), +$611.08 realized, 11/14.