Global Rates
ECB Jun 11
91%
+25bp — decision tomorrow
BoJ Jun 16
96%
+25bp — 6 days out
US 10Y
4.53%
Spiked post-NFP
WTI Crude
~$92
Consolidating
EUR/USD
~1.093
Softened pre-ECB
USD/JPY
~152
Yen steady on BoJ 96%
ECB decision TOMORROW June 11 at 91% for +25bp to 2.25% — quiet period ends, outcome locked. BoJ June 16 at 96% for +25bp to 1.0% — 6 days out. US May CPI at 4.2% YoY confirms global inflation still elevated, supporting hawkish stance at both central banks. Fed hike odds surged to 72% post-NFP — US rate trajectory now upward-skewed, reinforcing global rates-higher theme. S&P -2.6% post-NFP selloff, 10Y at 4.53%. USD/JPY ~152, EUR/USD ~1.093.
Today's Market Moves
ECB +25bp Jun 11
91%→91%0pp
Unchanged at 91% — quiet period, no new signals. Decision tomorrow 14:15 CET. Market fully positioned.
BoJ +25bp Jun 16
96%→96%0pp
Steady at 96%. 6 days to resolution. No new BoJ communications expected before the decision.
US Fed Hike 2026
1%→72%+71pp
CME FedWatch: 72% chance of at least one hike in 2026. Global rates-higher theme now dominant. Supports ECB and BoJ hawkish cases.
May CPI (US)
36%→0%-36pp
Resolved 4.2% YoY / 0.5% MoM — in-line with consensus. Three positions closed +$208.61. Confirms inflation elevated globally; ECB/BoJ hike thesis intact.
Screening Table
| # | Market | Expiry | Market Price | Fair Value | Gap (pp) | Direction | Volume | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BoJ +25bp Jun 16 | Jun 16 | 96% | 90% | -6pp | BUY YES | $$360K | 9/10 |
| 2 | ECB +25bp Jun 11 | Jun 11 | 91% | 91% | 0pp | NEUTRAL | $$526K | 8/10 |
| 3 | ECB No Change Jun 11 | Jun 11 | 7% | 7% | 0pp | NEUTRAL | $$526K | 8/10 |
| 4 | BoJ No Change Jun | Jun 16 | 3% | 8% | +5pp | NEUTRAL | $$360K | 7/10 |
| 5 | ECB +50bp Jun 11 | Jun 11 | 1% | 1% | 0pp | NEUTRAL | $$526K | 6/10 |
| 6 | BoJ Jul +25bp | Jul 2026 | 45% | 40% | -5pp | NEUTRAL | $$180K | 6/10 |
| 7 | ECB Cut Jun 11 | Jun 11 | 0% | 0% | 0pp | NEUTRAL | $$526K | 9/10 |
| 8 | BoJ Cut Jun | Jun 16 | 0% | 0% | 0pp | NEUTRAL | $$360K | 9/10 |
Top 5 Opportunities
1
BoJ +25bp June 16 — YES
↑ BUY YES-6pp
Market price
96%
Fair value
90%
Gap: -6pp
6 days to resolution at 96%. US CPI 4.2% = global inflation elevated, supports BoJ hawkish case. USD/JPY 152 = continued yen weakness = import inflation pressure. Bloomberg confirms pre-meeting discussions active. No new signals expected. Holding to resolution.
▵ Bull case
- Global CPI elevated — BoJ under pressure
- USD/JPY 152 = import inflation headwind
- Bloomberg confirms active pre-meeting discussions
- April 6-3 vote = strong internal consensus
▿ Bear case
- Iran-driven oil shock could cause global pause
- Q1 GDP was slightly negative
2
ECB +25bp June 11 — YES
↑ BUY YES0pp
Market price
91%
Fair value
91%
Gap: 0pp
Decision tomorrow. 91% priced, no gap to exploit. US CPI 4.2% and Fed hike narrative reinforce ECB's hawkish case — another reason not to pause. Monitoring post-decision market repricing for any follow-on opportunity.
▵ Bull case
- HICP 3% April
- US CPI 4.2% = global inflation sticky
- WTI $92 = energy price support
▿ Bear case
- German growth concerns
- Geopolitical uncertainty
3
ECB No Change June 11 — NO
↑ BUY YES0pp
Market price
7%
Fair value
7%
Gap: 0pp
No change at 7% — fair. Resolves tomorrow. No opportunity.
▵ Bull case
- ECB could pause on growth concerns
▿ Bear case
- 91% for hike
- Global inflation elevated
4
BoJ No Change June — NO
↑ BUY YES+5pp
Market price
3%
Fair value
8%
Gap: +5pp
3% no-change — slightly low but no new position with 6 days to go.
▵ Bull case
- Shock scenario forces pause
▿ Bear case
- 96% for hike
- Global rates-higher theme
5
BoJ Jul +25bp — YES
↑ BUY YES-5pp
Market price
45%
Fair value
40%
Gap: -5pp
After June hike (96%), market prices July follow-on at ~45%. Given BoJ's gradual pace and uncertain global outlook, 40% fair value seems right — no significant edge. Watching for post-June-16 signal shift.
▵ Bull case
- Global inflation elevated
- Yen weakness persists
- BoJ on normalisation path
▿ Bear case
- BoJ has historically been very gradual — two consecutive hikes unlikely
- Q1 GDP negative