Daily Macro Global

Post-FOMC global picture: Warsh neutral, BoJ just hiked, ECB pausing, Iran signing June 19. The global rate cycle is at an inflection: BoJ tightening (1.0%, signal of second hike), ECB pausing (2.25%), Fed neutral-to-hawkish (3.50-3.75%, easing bias dropped, 3 hike dots). This is the most synchronized central bank hawkishness since 2022-23, but with an Iran deal disinflationary offset. Warsh's presser reset rate-cut bets globally — TheStreet headline: 'Warsh's first Fed meeting resets interest rate-cut bets.' Key global opportunity emerging: BoJ Sep 2026 second hike. Bloomberg confirmed 'another possible in 2026.' BoJ Sep meeting Sep 18-19. With June hike resolved and lower Japanese energy costs from Iran deal, the BoJ can afford to be patient but the second hike case builds with every month of 2% core CPI in Japan.