Global Rates
WTI Crude
~$93
$91–$95 range today
EUR/USD
~1.095
Stable pre-ECB decision
USD/JPY
~152
Yen firm on BoJ 96%
US 10Y
~4.55%
Higher for longer anchored
ECB Jun 11
91%
+25bp — decision tomorrow
BoJ Jun 16
96%
+25bp — 7 days out
ECB decision TOMORROW (June 11) at 91% for +25bp to 2.25% — final day of pre-meeting quiet period. BoJ June 16 at 96% for +25bp to 1.0% — 7 days out. US May CPI at 8:30am ET June 10 is the cross-asset catalyst: a hot print strengthens the hawkish case for both central banks. WTI trading $91–$95 today on continued Hormuz uncertainty. USD/JPY ~152, yen holds firm on BoJ hike certainty. ECB quiet period limits new signals — outcome largely priced.
Today's Market Moves
ECB +25bp Jun 11
92%→91%-1pp
Marginally dipped to 91% — within noise. ECB quiet period. Decision tomorrow 14:15 CET. Outcome essentially locked.
BoJ +25bp Jun 16
97%→96%-1pp
Minor slip from 97% to 96% — still near-certainty. Bloomberg maintains officials active in pre-meeting discussions. 7 days to resolution.
WTI Oil
94%→93%-1pp
Consolidating $91–$95. Iran-Israel tensions persist. Hawkish support for both ECB and BoJ via energy inflation remains intact.
US CPI May (Jun 10)
38%→36%-2pp
CPI 4.3% YES ticked slightly. Cross-asset watch: hot print tomorrow = stronger ECB/BoJ hawkish case; cool print = limited impact given both CBs signalled hikes already.
Screening Table
| # | Market | Expiry | Market Price | Fair Value | Gap (pp) | Direction | Volume | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BoJ +25bp Jun 16 | Jun 16 | 96% | 90% | -6pp | BUY YES | $$360K | 9/10 |
| 2 | ECB +25bp Jun 11 | Jun 11 | 91% | 91% | 0pp | NEUTRAL | $$526K | 8/10 |
| 3 | ECB No Change Jun 11 | Jun 11 | 7% | 7% | 0pp | NEUTRAL | $$526K | 8/10 |
| 4 | BoJ No Change Jun | Jun 16 | 3% | 8% | +5pp | NEUTRAL | $$360K | 7/10 |
| 5 | ECB +50bp Jun 11 | Jun 11 | 1% | 1% | 0pp | NEUTRAL | $$526K | 6/10 |
| 6 | BoJ +50bp Jun | Jun 16 | 1% | 1% | 0pp | NEUTRAL | $$360K | 5/10 |
| 7 | ECB Cut Jun 11 | Jun 11 | 0% | 0% | 0pp | NEUTRAL | $$526K | 9/10 |
| 8 | BoJ Cut Jun | Jun 16 | 0% | 0% | 0pp | NEUTRAL | $$360K | 9/10 |
Top 5 Opportunities
1
BoJ +25bp June 16 — YES
↑ BUY YES-6pp
Market price
96%
Fair value
90%
Gap: -6pp
BoJ stands at 96% — 7 days from resolution. Bloomberg maintains officials actively discussing the June 16 hike to 1.0%. USD/JPY ~152 adds import inflation pressure. Japan CPI above 2% target. April 6-3 vote shows strong internal consensus. Iran energy prices only reinforce the hawkish case. No new information expected before the decision.
▵ Bull case
- Bloomberg: officials in active pre-meeting discussion
- 6-3 April vote = internal consensus
- Japan CPI above 2% target
- USD/JPY 152 = import inflation headwind
▿ Bear case
- Iran shock could trigger safety pause
- Q1 GDP was slightly negative (revised)
2
ECB +25bp June 11 — YES
↑ BUY YES0pp
Market price
91%
Fair value
91%
Gap: 0pp
Decision is tomorrow. 91% priced, fair value roughly matches — no gap to exploit. ECB is in quiet period, no new signals expected. Outcome essentially locked barring last-minute shock. Monitoring for post-decision market reaction.
▵ Bull case
- HICP 3% April — above target
- WTI $93 = energy inflation support
- Hawkish Governing Council rhetoric
▿ Bear case
- German growth concerns
- Geopolitical uncertainty could prompt pause
3
ECB No Change June 11 — NO
↑ BUY YES0pp
Market price
7%
Fair value
7%
Gap: 0pp
No change at 7% — roughly fair. No opportunity. Decision tomorrow will resolve this.
▵ Bull case
- ECB could cite Hormuz shock as reason to pause
▿ Bear case
- 91% for hike
- HICP 3% well above 2% target
4
BoJ No Change June — NO
↑ BUY YES+5pp
Market price
3%
Fair value
8%
Gap: +5pp
No-change probability at 3% — slightly lower than uncertainty justifies but with 7 days to resolution and full conviction on the hike, risk-reward doesn't support a new position on the no-change side.
▵ Bull case
- Geopolitical shock could force pause
▿ Bear case
- Bloomberg confirms hike discussions
- 96% market consensus
5
BoJ +50bp June — NO
↑ BUY YES0pp
Market price
1%
Fair value
1%
Gap: 0pp
50bp essentially zero probability. BoJ normalizes gradually at 25bp increments. No opportunity.
▵ Bull case
- Inflation significantly overshots
▿ Bear case
- BoJ gradual normalization doctrine
- 25bp is the consensus path