Global Rates
ECB Rate
2.25%
+25bp confirmed Jun 11
BoJ Jun 16
97.7%
+25bp to 1.0% in 5 days
EUR/USD
~1.10
EUR firming post-hike
WTI Crude
~$90.80
Consolidating off $93 high
S&P 500
~7,267
-3.5% since NFP Jun 5
FOMC Jun 16-17
99% hold
Warsh tone = key
ECB delivered +25bp to 2.25% today — confirmed, first hike since September 2023. Lagarde press conference flagged updated staff projections with 2026 Euro area inflation revised to ~3% (from 2.6% March). The hike was driven by Iran energy shock pass-through and second-round effects in wages. BoJ June 16 in 5 days at 97.7% — Bloomberg now reports BoJ watchers see TWO hikes in 2026 starting next week. FOMC June 16-17 simultaneously — hold expected but Warsh tone is the global rates catalyst. All three major central banks tightening = coordinated global hawkish cycle.
Today's Market Moves
ECB +25bp Jun 11
91%→100%+9pp
RESOLVED YES. ECB hiked to 2.25% as expected. Staff projections revised: 2026 HICP now ~3%. Lagarde: data-dependent. Next ECB meeting July — odds building for another 25bp.
BoJ +25bp Jun 16
97%→98%+1pp
Now at 97.7% with 5 days to resolution. Bloomberg: BoJ watchers see TWO 2026 hikes. Reuters poll: 94% of economists aligned. Governor Ueda hawkish.
Global Rates Cycle
0%→1%+1pp
ECB hiked today, BoJ hiking June 16, Fed likely hiking by October. First coordinated global tightening cycle since 2022. Iran energy shock + sticky services inflation driving all three.
EUR/USD
109%→110%+1pp
EUR firmed on ECB hike confirmation. Positive for our USD-inflation positions — stronger EUR = some US import price relief.
Screening Table
| # | Market | Expiry | Market Price | Fair Value | Gap (pp) | Direction | Volume | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BoJ +25bp Jun 16 | Jun 16 | 98% | 95% | -3pp | NEUTRAL | $$360K | 9/10 |
| 2 | ECB +25bp Jun 11 | Jun 11 | 100% | 100% | 0pp | RESOLVED YES | $$526K | 9/10 |
| 3 | BoJ +25bp Sep 2026 | Sep 2026 | 65% | 72% | +7pp | BUY YES | $$120K | 7/10 |
| 4 | ECB +25bp Jul 2026 | Jul 2026 | 55% | 60% | +5pp | NEUTRAL | $$200K | 6/10 |
| 5 | BoJ No Change Jun 16 | Jun 16 | 2% | 5% | +3pp | NEUTRAL | $$360K | 9/10 |
Top 5 Opportunities
1
BoJ +25bp Jun 16 — YES
↑ BUY YES-3pp
Market price
98%
Fair value
95%
Gap: -3pp
97.7% for +25bp to 1.0% in 5 days. Bloomberg reports BoJ watchers now see TWO 2026 hikes starting with next week. Reuters poll: 94% of economists. Governor Ueda hawkish. No edge to enter at 98% — but watching for post-resolution entry on the SECOND hike (September/October).
▵ Bull case
- Bloomberg: two 2026 hikes expected
- Japan CPI above 2% target with wage growth
- USD/JPY near 152 = yen weakness = import inflation
- 94% economist consensus
▿ Bear case
- Geopolitical shock could force pause
- Q1 GDP was negative (though revised)
2
ECB +25bp Jun 11 — YES
↑ BUY YES0pp
Market price
100%
Fair value
100%
Gap: 0pp
ECB hiked +25bp to 2.25% as expected. First hike since September 2023. Staff projections revised higher (2026 HICP ~3%). Lagarde flagged data-dependent path. Watching July ECB meeting odds for next entry.
▵ Bull case
- Resolved YES — confirmed hike
▿ Bear case
3
BoJ +25bp Sep 2026 — YES
↑ BUY YES+7pp
Market price
65%
Fair value
72%
Gap: +7pp
Bloomberg sees TWO BoJ hikes in 2026. If June 16 resolves YES (97.7%), the September hike becomes the base case. 65% market vs 72% fair value — a 7pp gap. Volume is low ($120K) — watching for liquidity to build post-June 16 resolution before entering. Potential next global position.
▵ Bull case
- Bloomberg: two 2026 hikes expected
- Post-June 16 hike = September becomes next target
- Japan CPI/wages well above target
▿ Bear case
- Low volume ($120K) — thin market
- Geopolitical risk could pause BoJ in September
4
ECB +25bp Jul 2026 — YES
↑ BUY YES+5pp
Market price
55%
Fair value
60%
Gap: +5pp
Post-hike today, ECB July is now live. 55% vs fair value 60% — gap only 5pp, below our 8pp entry threshold. Lagarde was data-dependent, not forward-guiding aggressively. Watching for gap to widen as July data arrives (June CPI, PMIs). No position yet.
▵ Bull case
- ECB inflation projection revised to 3%
- Iran energy spike in June data
▿ Bear case
- Lagarde data-dependent — not pre-committed
- EUR strength = import disinflation
5
BoJ No Change Jun 16 — NO
↑ BUY YES+3pp
Market price
2%
Fair value
5%
Gap: +3pp
No-change at 2% — essentially impossible. 5 days to resolution. Gap too small for meaningful entry.
▵ Bull case
- Black swan: geopolitical shock forces pause
▿ Bear case
- 97.7% consensus for hike
- Bloomberg confirms two-hike view