Global Rates
WTI Crude
~$75
-10% on week — Iran supply normalization priced
Brent
~$80
Lowest since early March — Hormuz reopen priced
MOU Status
IN EFFECT
Blockade lifted, tankers moving, 60-day clock starts
BoJ Rate
1.0%
Sep 18-19 is next watch — WTI fall slightly softens case
ECB Rate
2.25%
Hold likely through Q3 — monitoring Iran energy effects
60-Day Clock
Started
Jul 19 = 30-day Hormuz milestone, Aug 18 = final talks deadline
Today is the formal completion of what began June 15: the US-Iran MOU is now in effect. Bürgenstock ceremony confirmed with Vance, Witkoff, Araghchi, Ghalibaf. The US naval blockade on Iranian ports is lifted (Article 4). First tankers are already transiting. The 60-day negotiation clock — covering nuclear program, sanctions, Lebanon — starts today (June 19). The 30-day Hormuz compliance deadline is July 19. Oil markets have fully priced the supply normalization: Brent ~$80, WTI ~$75, both down ~10% on the week. Global energy deflation is the key macro theme for Q3 — it reduces headline inflation globally but does not affect core. ECB (at 2.25%) and BoJ (at 1.0%) are both on hold next month but watching Iran energy effects. BoJ watch: After June 16's 7-1 hike to 1.0%, the September 18-19 meeting is the next opportunity. Bloomberg confirmed 'another [hike] possible in 2026.' With WTI falling, Japan's import costs drop — slightly softening the case for a September hike but not eliminating it. USD/JPY impact: yen strengthens with oil down (Japan = major energy importer), potentially giving BoJ less urgency. Target entry on BoJ Sep market: 55¢, once July CPI data is clearer. Bürgenstock follow-on talks were postponed (Vance didn't travel Thursday), a minor diplomatic friction signal but not material — the MOU itself is binding regardless.
Today's Market Moves
Strait of Hormuz Jul 31 (pos-012)
55%→46%-9pp
HOLD: Blockade physically lifted, tankers moving. Poly at 46¢ is pricing traffic lag vs deal failure. Physical evidence (first tankers transiting) precedes Poly pricing. July 19 = 30-day MOU milestone. HOLD — exit signal is if traffic clearly stalling by July 12.
BoJ Sep 2026 Second Hike (Watch)
58%→55%-3pp
MONITORING: WTI -10% on week = Japan import cost deflation. Softens BoJ Sep case marginally but doesn't eliminate it. 7-1 vote conviction at BoJ remains. Wait for Japan July CPI (late July) before entry decision.
ECB Sep 2026 Hike (Watch)
42%→38%-4pp
MONITORING: Eurozone energy deflation (Iran deal) reduces near-term inflation. ECB at 2.25% — may pause in Q3. Watch Sep 11 ECB meeting.
Screening Table
| # | Market | Expiry | Market Price | Fair Value | Gap (pp) | Direction | Volume | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Strait of Hormuz Jul 31 | Jul 31 | 46% | 78% | +32pp | HOLD YES | $$6.1M | 6/10 |
| 2 | Fed Rate Hike 2026 | Dec 2026 | 57% | 66% | +9pp | HOLD YES | $$2.2M | 8/10 |
| 3 | BoJ +25bp Sep 2026 | Sep 2026 | 55% | 68% | +13pp | WATCH — entry after Japan Jul CPI | $TBD | 5/10 |
Top 5 Opportunities
1
Strait of Hormuz Normal by Jul 31 — YES
↑ BUY YES+32pp
Market price
46%
Fair value
78%
Gap: +32pp
The MOU Article 4 (blockade lifted) and Article 6 (Hormuz immediate opening) are both now being executed. First tankers transiting. WTI at $75 = global markets pricing supply. The question is pace of normalization. Insurers (Lloyd's, etc.) will need 2-3 weeks to re-certify tanker routes. Shipping companies will need visible safe transits before increasing volumes. July 19 = 30-day milestone; if on track, July 31 resolution YES becomes near-certain. Polymarket at 46¢ offers a 32pp gap to FV of ~78¢ if normalization proceeds. Hold with July 19 as the decision checkpoint.
▵ Bull case
- Blockade physically lifted today
- First tankers already transiting
- WTI -10% = market pricing recovery
- MOU in effect with UN SC oversight
- US financial incentive: $300B reconstruction aid contingent on compliance
▿ Bear case
- Insurance re-certification 2-3 week lag
- IRGC operational compliance uncertain
- Bürgenstock follow-on talks postponed — minor diplomatic risk
- Trump retains personal veto
2
BoJ Second Hike Sep 2026 — YES
↑ BUY YES+13pp
Market price
55%
Fair value
68%
Gap: +13pp
BoJ hiked June 16 to 1.0% (7-1 vote, highest since 1995). September 18-19 is the next meeting with enough data to justify a second hike. WTI -10% on the week = Japan import cost deflation — marginally softens the Sep case but doesn't eliminate it. Japan's CPI is sticky (domestic services, wages). Wait for Japan July CPI (late July) before entry. 13pp gap to FV. Target entry 55¢.
▵ Bull case
- 7-1 June vote = strong committee consensus
- BoJ 'gradual normalization' path intact
- Japan wages still rising
- USD/JPY strengthening gives BoJ more room (less import inflation concern)
▿ Bear case
- WTI deflation = Japan import cost deflation
- USD/JPY strengthening could slow export recovery
- Only one dissenter (Ueda) — suggests internal pace debate