Daily Macro Global
BoJ Decision
4 days
98% for +25bp to 1.0%
FOMC Decision
4-5 days
Hold, Warsh tone critical
ECB Rate
2.25%
Hiked Jun 11, pause Jul 24
WTI (Iran deal)
$86
Deal imminent, -$6 from peak
BoJ Sep 2026 Hike
65%
FV 72%, 7pp gap — watching
Iran Ceasefire
Imminent
Signing 'soon' per Trump
Three simultaneous catalysts hit the week of June 16: BoJ June 16 (+25bp to 1.0%, 98%), FOMC June 16-17 (hold, but Warsh tone critical for H2), and today's Iran deal de-escalation (WTI $86, -$6 from recent highs). ECB hiked June 11 to 2.25% — next ECB meeting July 24 expected pause. Iran deal: Trump confirmed 'documents in final shape' on June 11. If signed, oil supply normalization removes the geopolitical premium that has driven global CPI above-target in H1 2026. Key portfolio impact: BoJ hike confirms divergence vs Fed (hold) — supports Sep 2026 BoJ second hike thesis. Watching BoJ Sep 2026 +25bp at 65% (FV ~72%, 7pp gap) for entry post-June 16.