Global Rates

The global unwind of the war-and-hawkishness trade continued for a second session, and the theme is synchronization: soft US labor demand (JOLTS 7.36M) layered on Iran de-escalation pulled the US 10-year to ~4.6% and dragged developed long ends lower with it, while September Fed-hike odds slipped under 50%. Everything that spiked together in July is easing together now — a clean reminder that our hawkish-tilted book is, in aggregate, one macro bet with several tickets. The design choice that matters: the positions built on structure (no-cut, anchored on a Fed with three July hike-dissenters) are holding, while the position built on the war premium (the 10Y touch) is giving it back. That's the correlation caution we kept flagging, playing out in real time — and the reason we never stacked a fifth or sixth ticket on the same trade. Tomorrow's US NFP is the global hinge: it will reprice the dollar, the front end, and by extension every G10 curve within minutes. On the watchlist, the two dramatic movers we never traded stay instructive — ECB September holds ~87c (repriced away from us weeks ago) and the BoJ September hike we missed sits ~39c; both are closed chapters we reference for the lessons, not the entries. No global trade today. The book runs on a schedule now, so it will be present for the NFP verdict.