Global Rates

The oil round-trip is the global story of the fortnight: Brent ran roughly 27% in two weeks to a ~$96.78 Friday close (WTI touched $92.43), and then, over the weekend, a SECOND night of paused US-Iran strikes sent it gapping lower this morning. That whipsaw — supply-shock spike, then de-escalation fade — is now propagating through every rate curve in reverse, and it framed the one trade we made: with the US Fed Rate Hike 2026 market at 66.5c and hike-odds for Wednesday's FOMC surged to 38% (from 12% a week ago), we trimmed half of that position into the strength precisely as its fuel began to cool. Booking a supply-shock trade as the supply shock pauses is the whole art. The 10-year, meanwhile, printed 4.71% last week — its highest since early 2025 and a level that drags every developed long-end higher — leaving our US touch position nine basis points from resolution before the Fed even meets. Into that, three set-piece events land in 72 hours: the FOMC Wednesday (live, ~38% hike), the US Q2 GDP advance Thursday (resolves our GDP bracket, now fairly priced at 35c), and — the one we've guarded longest — the BoJ statement Thursday, where our September-hike gate finally opens or closes for real. The Japan market sits at 14c; the oil pullback marginally eases the imported-inflation pressure that is the thesis's spine, which only sharpens the question the statement must answer. Europe stays the held breath: ECB September unmoved at 16c into Thursday's euro-area flash CPI, still our likeliest August trade if the print runs hot against a sleeping price.