Global Rates

The synchronized unwind entered its third session, and today it has an energy leg to go with the labour leg. Iran and Oman agreed a proposed shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz — the most concrete implementation step since the June MOU — and WTI has now lost about 11% in three sessions to roughly $75, with Brent closing above $79. On the same tape, US ADP came in at 44,000 for July against a revised 95,000 in June, the US 10-year settled near 4.62%, and Polymarket's September Fed-hike odds fell a third straight day to 44.5c. Cheaper energy and softer US labour demand push in the same direction for every G10 curve at once, which is why the developed long ends keep moving together. The global read on our own book is uncomfortable and worth repeating: five open positions, four of them expressions of the same hawkish-Fed idea. Today that concentration cost us — pos-017 gave back another 4 points and its fair value came down a second consecutive day, 62 → 55. The structural positions (no-cut at 87.55c) held far better than the premium-driven one, which is the same lesson as yesterday, one session louder. The watchlist barely moved and both entries remain closed chapters we keep for the lessons: ECB September sits at 86.5c (repriced away from us in July) and the BoJ September hike we missed is at 40c, effectively unchanged for a week. Neither is a chase. We screened one genuinely new candidate — a possible 12-point gap between CME FedWatch (~57% by one aggregator summary) and Polymarket's 44.5c on the September Fed hike — and refused it because we could not verify the FedWatch number at source during this run. Our rule is that verification and flag belong to the same session. That refusal is the day's real decision. No global trade. Tomorrow's US payroll is the hinge for the dollar, the front end and every curve that follows it.