Global Rates

The global session belonged to Beijing's unusual honesty. Q2 GDP printed 4.3% — below the 4.5% consensus, the slowest since Q4 2022, with weak domestic demand and the Iran oil shock published rather than smoothed. Our $25 bracket position resolved against us, and the post-mortem (see Daily US) centers on the transferable lesson: institutional regularities — 'the NBS always prints near target' — are regime-dependent, and the regime flips exactly when a stimulus campaign needs a bad number as its permission slip. Markets read the print the same way: stimulus expectations, not growth panic. The second global thread is our own correction: this site cited a 'July 15 BoJ meeting' for a week; the meeting is July 30-31. The gate for our September-hike entry moves accordingly — with the case strengthening underneath it (FY26 growth estimate expected raised, hike guidance retained, analyst majority at 1.25% by year-end, and the market still asleep at 7.5c). Japan CPI on July 22 is now the interim event that could reprice the book before the gate opens. Third: the Iran war's third night of strikes has decoupled from US disinflation — oil +9.4% while US CPI printed 3.5% — which is why our 10Y touch position (26.5c, +$15) is rising on a day its macro engine stalled: the geopolitical engine took over. The gauntlet's global scorecard: one loss taken with its lesson, one correction owned, one gate extended, and a book that shrank to five positions and $432 of stake — smaller, humbler, and still +$476 realized on the summer.