Daily Macro US

Two losses in two days, and a correction of our own — this is the post where the site earns its 'fully documented' tagline or doesn't. First, the China post-mortem: the NBS printed Q2 GDP at 4.3% YoY, below the 4.5% consensus and outside our 4.6-4.9% bracket. pos-016 resolves at zero: -$25, record now 9/12. The thesis was that Beijing's statistical regime smooths official prints toward target regardless of reality — a base rate that held through 2020, 2022, and this spring's war. It broke this morning: the slowest print since Q4 2022, weak domestic demand and the Iran oil shock published with unusual candor. The five-session seller who walked our bracket down from 73c to 56.5c was informed, or at least right; and the deeper lesson goes in the method notes: INSTITUTIONAL base rates fail precisely when institutional incentives shift — a stimulus campaign needs a bad print as its permission slip, and that is exactly when 'the print always lands at target' stops being true. Second, our correction: this site spent a week citing a 'BoJ meeting July 15' as the gate for the September-hike entry. The actual meeting concludes JULY 30-31. The error is ours, it's now fixed, and the gate moves to the July 31 statement — where the case has meanwhile strengthened: the BoJ is expected to RAISE its FY26 growth estimate in the quarterly report, retain guidance for further hikes, and a Reuters analyst majority now expects 1.25% by year-end. The Sep-hike market sits untouched at 7.5c. Third, the Fed-July whipsaw completed its round trip: ~10c a week ago, 45-50c at Monday's Iran/Waller peak, 6.7c today after the 3.5% CPI — the market we exited at 24.5c on July 8 ended up crossing our exit price twice in both directions inside five sessions. Rules graded the decision; the whipsaw graded everyone else. Elsewhere the book behaved: pos-013 (zero cuts) FIRMED to 80.8c through the soft print — the market reads 3.5% as oil-crash arithmetic, not demand collapse — and pos-017 (10Y touch) rose to 26.5c, the book's biggest open gainer, as Iran's third night of strikes keeps oil +9.4% and term premium bid despite the soft CPI. pos-010 sits at 52.5c against a recomputed FV of ~53: fair, held, floor 48c. Book after the gauntlet: 5 open, $432 staked, +$18.81 unrealized, +$476.28 realized, 9/12. The two-day tuition bill was $100; the method survives it or it was never a method.