Daily Macro US

First profit banked on the Fed complex, and it took a rule — not a hunch — to do it. Over ten days the Fed Rate Hike 2026 market ran from 52.5c to 66.5c as Brent spiked toward $100 and CME hike-odds for this week's FOMC surged to 38% (from 12% a week ago, per CNBC). That pushed pos-010 through the 64c trim line we published on July 21, so this morning we sold half the position at 66.5c — booking +$20.91 on the sold portion (record 10/13, realized now +$497.19) and letting the remaining $100 ride the September/October windows. The timing rule earned its keep: the same weekend that lifted hike odds also brought a SECOND night of paused US-Iran strikes, and oil gapped lower this morning (Brent off its ~$96.78 Friday close, WTI back below $90). Selling strength into a two-way FOMC while the position's master variable — oil — starts rolling over is exactly the 'trim into the thesis, don't marry it' logic the line exists to enforce. The rest of the book is riding a fresh high. The 10-year hit 4.71% last week, its loftiest since early 2025 and just ~9 basis points from the touch that resolves pos-017 — which marks 31c (+$22, best position on the book) with FV lifted to 46; the FOMC on Wednesday is a live upside catalyst and even the oil pullback leaves it a single print from home. pos-018 finally reached our fair value of 35c (+$23.6) — the edge is now closed, so it becomes a pure binary hold into Thursday's BEA advance, GDPNow still near 1.7. Zero-cuts sits at 84.7c; the FOMC, hold or hike, buries the cut case either way. The book: 6 open, $357 staked (down $100 after the trim — deliberately lighter into event risk), +$86.56 unrealized (a fresh high even after banking the trim), +$497.19 realized, 10/13. The crescendo is here: FOMC Wednesday, then Thursday's double-header of the BEA Q2 advance (resolves pos-018) and the BoJ statement (opens the gate we've guarded for three weeks).